犯罪与政治信任——基于亚洲13个国家和地区的多层次分析  

Crime and Political Trust --A Multilevel Analysis of Thirteen Asian Countries and Regions

作　　者：吴进进[1] 邵东珂[2,3] Wu Jinjin Shao Dongke

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,,330013 [2]清华大学公共管理学院 [3]清华大学中国应急管理研究基地

出　　处：《公共管理评论》2015年第2期54-74,共21页China Public Administration Review

基　　金：教育部(哲社重大攻关)“社会稳定风险评估与社会矛盾预防研究”课题(编号:11JZD029)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：本文使用第二波亚洲民主价值观调查13个亚洲国家和地区的数据,运用有序logistic回归模型和多层线性模型（HLM）,检验了公众犯罪受害经历、国家（地区）的犯罪率（谋杀率）对公众政治信任（政府机构信任和弥散性信任）的影响。本文发现,无论是个体的犯罪受害经历,还是国家（地区）层面的谋杀率都显著降低了个体的政治信任。有犯罪受害经历的公众的政府机构信任度和政治弥散性信任度都低于没有犯罪受害经历的公众。一国（地区）的谋杀率越高,公众的政府机构信任度也越低。但是谋杀率对弥散性信任的影响较弱。既有的研究几乎只专注于拉美地区个体层面的犯罪受害经历对政治信任的影响,本文首次将研究的视角扩展到亚洲国家和地区,并且使用多层线性模型分析国家（地区）层次犯罪率的影响。Using the second wave of data from the Asian Barometer Survey of thirteen countries and regions, this articles employs an ordered-logistic regression model and an hierarchical linear model （HLM） to examine the effects of individual crime victimization and a country＇s crime rate （homicide rate） on citizens＇political trust （both specific trust and diffuse trust）. We find that both crime victimization and the homicide rate will significantly negatively impact political trust. People with victimization experience have lower specific trust and more diffuse trust than people who are not victimized. Moreover, people＇s specific trust in a country with a higher homicide rate is also lower, whereas their diffuse trust is weakly related to the homicide rate. Most existing studies focus on the effects individual crime victimization on political trust in Latin America. This article is the first study to expand this research perspective to Asian countries and regions and uses a multilevel linear model to analyze the effects of country-level crime rates on political trust.

关 键 词：犯罪 犯罪受害 机构信任 弥散性信任 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学]