山西“6．13”致灾强对流天气成因及预警提前量分析  

Analysis of Mechanism and Predictability of a Severe Convective Weather Process on June 13th in Shanxi Province

作　　者：赵海英[1] 赵珺 王思慜[1] 刘宇庆[1] 郝一骄 

机构地区：[1]山西省气象台,太原030006 [2]晋城市气象局,山西晋城048000

出　　处：《山西气象》2016年第4期1-4,共4页Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly

摘　　要：为了提高灾害性天气的预报能力，提炼强对流天气的预报着眼点，本文利用常规气象观测、加密自动站、卫星和雷达等资料，对2016年6月13日发生在山西的一次致灾混合性强对流天气过程进行了分析。分析发现：此次过程发生在①“上千冷、下暖湿”的高低空环境配置下，水汽和不稳定能量比较充足，0℃层和-20℃层高度适宜，0—6km垂直风切变较大，对流在地面辐合线和低空切变线上触发，并迅速发展成为飑线。②飑线出流偏北风与环境偏南风形成了辐合线，在辐合线上不断有新的对流触发生成，引导风暴快速发展并移动。③此次过程中，冰雹由孤立对流单体造成，基本不可预警，雷雨大风由飑线造成，有2—6小时的预警提前量。In order to improve the forecasting ability of severe convective weather, based on various observation data collected by meteorological automatic station, satellite and radar etc, a severe convective weather on June 13th 2016 in Shanxi was analyzed in this paper. The result show that： （1）Thesevere convective weather？occurred at an unstable atmospheric environment caused by the combination of cold and dry upper air with warm and wet surface flow. There was sufficient water vapor and instability energy. The 0 ℃ and - 20 ℃ layer height and the strong 0 - 6 km vertical wind shear was favorable for development of hail storm. Convection was triggered by the surface convergence line and low level shear lines, and developed rapidly into a squall line. （2）The convergence line was formed by the meet of north outflow from the squall line and environmental south wind. New convection was triggered constantly on the convergence line, which accelerated the rapid development and movement of the storm. （3）In this case, the hail was caused by isolated convective ceils, which was hard to early warning, while the thunderstorm gales were caused by a squall line, which can be early warned 2 - 6 hours in advance.

关 键 词：强对流 飑线 可预警性 

分 类 号：P448[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]