计及弃水风险的水库优化调度研究  

Optimal scheduling of reservoirs considering surplus water risk

作　　者：徐刚[1,2] 张辉 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443003 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2017年第9期40-47,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51409152)

摘　　要：弃水风险是水电站在运营管理中考虑的重要因素之一,在传统的水库调度中,往往是以发电量最大或发电收入最大为目标函数建立模型,虽然理论上可以得到最优解,但是由于没有考虑弃水风险的存在,故这些目标函数在实际情况中不太适用。因此,本文首先通过流域历史径流资料统计计算时段可能弃水量,然后通过水量平衡方程由时段可能弃水量推算时段实际弃水量,最终在满足一定水电站弃水风险的条件下求解梯级水电站年最大发电量。本文以乌溪江流域梯级水电站为工程背景,以考虑弃水风险模型和不考虑弃水风险模型进行对比,最终计算结果表明模型可以给出具有较好风险收益的调度决策方案。Surplus water risk of reservoirs is a key factor in dispatching operation of hydropower stations. In traditional reservoir scheduling, models were generally constructed to maximize power generation or income. Although an optimal solution to such models is theoretically possible, it always fails to account for the risk in determination of the reservoir water surplus and hence the objective functions so obtained will be practically useless. In this work, a water surplus estimate for a river basin in a given time interval was calculated first from the statistics of the basin＇s historical runoff records, and then it was modified into the actual surplus of this interval by requiring it to satisfy a water balance equation. Finally, annual power generation of the cascade hydropower stations was maximized under a certain condition of surplus water risk. In a case study of the Wuxijiang River cascade hydropower stations, comparison with a traditional scheduling model shows that the new surplus risk model can produce scheduling schemes of better risk benefits for hydropower stations.

关 键 词：优化调度 弃水风险 可能弃水量 实际弃水量 梯级水电站 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]