埕岛油田中心三号平台溢油风险评价  

Oil Spill Risk Assessment of the Platform No. 3 in Chengdao Oilfield

作　　者：丁浩[1] 孙培樑 赵勇[2] 文世鹏[2] 丛军[2] 荆波[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东) [2]胜利油田海洋采油厂

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2017年第9期89-92,共4页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

基　　金：基金论文:基于山东省油气产业转型升级的结构优化驱动分析及可持续发展对策研究(2015GGX109004)

摘　　要：溢油事故会造成严重的环境破坏和巨大的经济损失,溢油风险评价对于防止溢油事故的发生具有重要的指导意义。首先识别埕岛油田中心三号平台溢油风险,构建Bow-tie模型对埕岛油田中心三号平台溢油可能性及其结果组合进行预测;其次,通过重要度分析,寻找易造成事故发生的薄弱环节;最后,利用贝叶斯网络求解基本事件的后验概率对溢油事故进行诊断。研究发现,埕岛油田中心三号平台溢油概率为0.000 101,溢油事故所造成的各风险级别的概率从高到低依次是C、B、D、A;为了降低溢油事故概率,应采取措施防止立管受外力破坏;在事故的诊断过程中,应优先检查平台上设备是否损坏。针对上述研究结果,为埕岛油田中心三号平台溢油风险的控制提出对策与建议。Oil spill accidents will cause serious environmental damage and huge economic losses. The risk assessment of oil spill is of great guiding significance to prevent the occurrence of oil spill accidents. First of all, the oil spill risk of the platform No.3 in Chengdao Oilfield is identified, and the Bow-tie model is established to predict the possibility and combination of the results for oil spill of the platform No.3 in Chengdao Oilfield; then through importance analysis the weak links of accidents are to be found; finally, the posterior probability of the elementary event solved by Bayesian network is used to diagnose oil spill accidents. The research show that the oil spill probability of the platform No.3 in Chengdao Oilfield is 0.000101,and the probability of each risk level caused by oil spill accidents is C, B, D, A from high to low; in order to reduce the probability of oil spill, measures should be taken to prevent stand pipes from being damaged by external force; during the diagnosis process of the accident, it should be done first to check whether the equipment on the platform is damaged. Aiming at the above research results, countermeasures and suggestions for controlling the oil spill risk of platform No.3 in Chengdao Oilfield are put forward.

关 键 词：埕岛油田 采油平台 溢油风险 BN-Bow-tie模型 重要度分析 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]