南京市大气CO_2浓度模拟及源贡献研究  

Simulation of atmospheric CO_2 concentration and source apportionment analysis in Nanjing City

作　　者：胡诚[1,2] 刘寿东[1,2] 曹畅[1] 徐敬争 曹正达 李文倩 徐家平[1] 张弥[1,2] 肖薇[1,2] 李旭辉[1] HU Cheng LIU Shoudong CAO Chang XU Jingzheng CAO Zhengda LI Wenqian XU JiapingI ZHANG Mi XIAO Wei LI Xuhui(Yale-NUIST Center on Atmospheric Environment, International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change （ILCEC）, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education （KLME）/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters （CIC-FEMD）, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, Nanjing 210044 Radio Science Research Institute Inc., Jiangsu 214073 Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen 361000 Hezhang Meteorological Bureau, Bijie 553200)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室大气环境中心 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室 [3]江苏省无线电科学研究所有限公司 [4]厦门市气象局 [5]贵州省毕节市赫章县气象局

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2017年第10期3862-3875,共14页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.41575147;41475141;41505005);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(No.PAPD);教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(No.PCSIRT);2016年度江苏省高校研究生科技创新项目(No.KYZZ16_0348);国家公派联合培养博士研究生项目(No.201508320287)~~

摘　　要：定量研究城市区域人为CO_2通量对于控制温室气体排放具有重要意义,而基于大气CO_2浓度观测与大气传输模型方法反演区域尺度的CO_2通量是未来的一个重要发展方向,其中模型对大气CO_2浓度的模拟则是能否成功反演CO_2通量的重要基础,然而我国还未有针对城市区域CO_2浓度的长时间(>1年)模拟.本研究基于高空间分辨率的人为源CO_2资料与拉格朗日大气传输模型(WRF-STILT),对南京市郊区34 m观测高度处2014年大气CO_2浓度进行模拟,并就模型模拟结果的主要影响因素和源贡献组成进行了分析,研究得出以下结论:(1)WRF-STILT模型能较好模拟出4个季节观测到的高CO_2浓度及有季节差异性的日变化特征.(2)观测CO_2浓度的足迹贡献源区(footprint)的季节变化在盛行风向影响下差异巨大,CO_2浓度增加值在前1 d的主要贡献占据总浓度贡献的90%,表明该34 m高度观测点可代表长三角区域的CO_2排放量的影响,而安徽东部和江苏中南部对其影响更大;(3)相对于排放源的日变化,边界层高度等气象因素的差异是引起CO_2强日变化的主要因素,这也是模拟的各季度浓度增加值差异的原因,其中秋季(34.97μmol·mol-1)>冬季(30.07μmol·mol-1)>夏季(27.28μmol·mol-1)>春季(23.36μmol·mol-1);(4)浓度的主要贡献来源分别为石油生产(41%)和能源工业(26%),这和长三角区域的人为源CO_2排放通量差异巨大(石油生产:3%,能源工业:35%).Quantifying anthropogenic CO2 flux in cities is essential to control greenhouse gas emissions,and the method of combing atmospheric CO2 concentration observations with atmospheric transport model is an important developing direction for CO2 flux retrieval at the regional scale,while the simulation performance of CO2 concentration is a vital basis for this method. Currently,no long-term CO2modeling（ 1 year） has been conducted for urban domains in China. In this study,we applied high spatial resolution anthropogenic CO2 emission inventory and Lagrangian particle dispersion model（ WRF-STILT） to simulate CO2 concentrations observed at 34 m height for the year of 2014,with main focus on the diurnal variations and their controlling factors. Results showed that the WRF-STILT model can simulate peak CO2 concentration and its strong diurnal variation. Seasonal prevailing wind direction difference led to large difference in footprint source area,and 90% of modeled CO2 enhancement was contributed by past one day,which indicated our observations can represent the emission effect of Yangtze River Delta area with main contributions from the east of Anhui province and the west of Jiangsu province. Diurnal variation of boundary layer height had much larger effect than that of emissions,leading to differences in seasonal CO2 enhancement,i.e. autumn（ 34.97 μmol·mol^-1） winter（ 30.07 μmol·mol^-1） summer（ 27.28 μmol·mol-1） spring（ 23.36 μmol·mol^-1）. Source apportionment indicated that oil production and energy industry composed 41% and 26% of CO2 enhancement separately,while it was much different from regional average flux in domain1（ oil production 3% and energy industry 35%） where Yangtze River Delta is located.

关 键 词：人为化石燃料 WRF-STILT模型 足迹权重 长三角 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]