代际流动性趋势及其分解:增长、排序与离散效应  

Intergenerational Mobility and its Decomposition:Growth and Structural Effects

作　　者：李任玉[1] 陈悉榕 甘犁 LI Renyu CHEN Xirong GAN Li(Shenzhen University Beihang University Southwestern University of Economics and Finance)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学经济学院 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 [3]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院

出　　处：《经济研究》2017年第9期165-181,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDB134);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71703103)的资助

摘　　要：本文以两个相互独立的具有全国代表性的微观家庭调查数据库为数据基础,在采用多重估计方法对流动性趋势进行估计的基础上,引入流动性分解方法对代际流动性趋势的构成进行分解。估计结果显示,我国代际流动性呈现的"倒U型"趋势,在城镇人口和农村人口中都同时存在;约20世纪60年代前出生的子代,代际教育流动性呈现上升趋势,对于在60年代中期后出生的一代人,其代际教育流动性呈现下降趋势。对代际流动性趋势构成的分解结果显示我国的代际流动,主要来源于增长效应,即由社会阶层分布在时间维度上的变化所引起的流动,是社会总量发展的结果;排序效应所引起的流动性水平次之;离散流动对总体流动性贡献不大。增长效应的变化趋势是总体代际流动性变化趋势的主导因素;将增长效应从总体流动中剔除后,代际流动性的变化趋势变得较为平稳。Economists have shown a growing interest in intergenerational persistence in social mobility, focusing on not only sustainable development but also social equality. Intergenerational mobility between two generations is crucial to society for several reasons. First, it is an important indicator of the equality of opportunity. Second, intergenerationat mobility plays an essential role in economics and development. The literature on the topic finds a higher degree of persistence of social status across generations. Additionally, it demonstrates a mutual causal relationship between intergenerational mobility and economic development. As development promotes mobility while higher inequalities hinder it, the empirical question regarding the recent changes in intergenerational mobility in China has garnered attention. In this paper, we study the structure of intergenerational mobility trends in 20th century China. Intergenerational mobility is defined as the changes in social status between two generations. In 2011, the Gini coefficient rose to O. 61 and the income share held by the top 10% households in China exceeded 57%. The data used are nationally representative data from Chinese households, and contain multigenerational information. Mobility trends are estimated from cohorts of children born between 1930 and 1985. The proxy for an individuars social status is the individual＇s educational attainment. Therefore, mobility is measured by the changes between people＇s educational attainment and their father＇s educational attainment. Our research focuses on finding what lies behind China＇s mobility trends. We use the decomposition method proposed by Kerm （2004） to examine the sources of mobility trends, by further dividing total mobility into mobility caused by relative movement （called exchange mobility ） and mobility caused by structural changes containing both overall growth （ growth mobility） and redistribution （ disperse mobility）. In contrast with the stable social mobility of advanced ind

关 键 词：代际教育流动 流动性分解 增长效应 排序效应 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]