近十年来江汉平原钉螺面积时空变化规律研究  

Spatiotemporal variation of oncomelania area in Jianghan Plain

作　　者：汤阳[1] 刘可群[1] 肖玮钰[1] 李仁东[2] 邱娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2017年第19期3597-3601,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201409);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571487)

摘　　要：目的探讨近十年来江汉平原各县市钉螺面积时空变化特征。方法利用2003-2016年江汉平原16县市钉螺面积资料,基于四分位法、线性倾向估计、经验正交函数(EOF)分解方法,分析江汉平原近十年来钉螺面积时空变化特征及其主要空间分布型。结果江汉平原北部县市钉螺面积中位数均低于1 000hm2,南部县市在5 000hm2以上,钟祥、潜江和荆门钉螺面积四分位距在380hm2以上;江汉平原钉螺面积在2010年前呈逐年下降趋势,此后维持稳定并从2014年开始下降;江汉平原北部县市钉螺面积变化线性倾向率为正值,南部县市均为负值,钟祥和蔡甸钉螺面积变化线性倾向率分别为38.50hm2/a和-69.79hm2/a,是江汉平原钉螺面积增减速率最快地区;钉螺面积EOF分解前两个特征向量场方差贡献分别为66.6%和13.3%,空间场为"南正北负"型和"+、-、+"三极型。结论江汉平原北部县市常年钉螺面积较小,南部县市常年钉螺面积较大;钟祥、潜江和荆门钉螺面积波动幅度较大;江汉平原南部和北部钉螺面积变化趋势有明显差异。Objective To study the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of Oncomelania area in Jianghan Plain in the recent decade. Methods Using Oncomelania area data of 16 counties in Jianghan Plain between 2003 and 2016, spatiotemporal variation rules and main distribution patterns of Oncomelania area variation in Jianghan Plain in recent decade are studied by applying the methods of quartile,linear tendency estimation and EOF. Results The median of Oncomelania area in counties of Northern Jianghan Plain are below 1000hm^2, and the median of Oncomelania area in counties of Southern Jianghan Plain are above 500Ohm^2. The IQR of Oncomelania area in Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen are all above 380hm^2. The Oncomelania area in Jianghan Plain decrease year by year before 2010, maintain stable after that, and decrease again since 2014. The values of linear tendency rates in counties of Northern Jianghan Plain are positive, while others are negative. Zhongxiang and Canadian which Linear tendency rate are 38.50hm^2/a and -69.79hm^2/a respectively, are the districts with fastest rise and fall rate of Oncomelania area. The variance contributions of the first two eigenvector fields are 66.6% and 13.3% respectively, which indicates South- positive and North -negative＂ pattern and ＇positive -negative -positive＂ triple -pole pattern. Conclusion There is a small Oncomelania area in counties of Northern Jianghan Plain and a large Oncomelania area in counties of Southern Jianghan Plain throughout the year, and a large fluctuation of Oncomelania area in Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen. Also, there is an obvious difference of Oncomelania area variation tendency between Northern Jianghan Plain and Southern Jianghan Plain.

关 键 词：钉螺面积 四分位法 线性倾向率 生态防控 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]