丝绸之路经济带核心区货币政策传导渠道实证研究  

Empirical Study on Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the Core Area of the Silk Road Economic Belt

作　　者：黄敏 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计金融学院,上海201209

出　　处：《上海经济》2017年第5期104-111,共8页Shanghai Economy

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(课题批准号:2015BJL010);喀什大学2015年度科研课题(课题批准号:(15)1574)资助

摘　　要：丝绸之路经济带是我国"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分。货币政策在其核心区经由何种渠道传导,影响着不同货币政策措施对经济的作用效力发挥。通过采用向量自回归、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解方法,运用1990-2014年度数据,实证检验表明,货币政策在核心区主要经由信贷渠道传导,金融机构信贷对核心区实际产出的影响持久并能抑制物价,而扩张性货币供给对实际产出的影响较小且不稳定,在长期中还将助推通货膨胀。因此央行的货币政策支持应靶向核心区金融机构信贷投放,促进产业优化,并考虑政策的持久效应。Silk Road Economic Belt is an important part of the ＂One Belt One Road＂ initiative. The transmission channel of monetary policy in its Core Area determines the effects of different monetary policy measures. Using VAR, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods with yearly data from 1990 to 2014, it empirically tests the monetary policy transmission channels in the Core Area. The findings show that the monetary policy is transmitted through the credit channel in the Core Area. It also finds that financial institute credit impacts persistently on the real output of the Core Area and can suppress prices, while expansionary money supply has weak and unstable effect on the real output and will fuel inflation in the long term. Therefore, supportive monetary policy should aim at the credit supply of financial institutions, foster industrial optimization and allow for its lasting effects.

关 键 词：丝绸之路经济带 货币渠道 信贷渠道 VAR 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]