基于Granger因果性的陕西公路交通资源配置效率研究  

Research on Allocation Efficiency of Highway Transportation Resources in Shaanxi Based on Granger-causality

作　　者：芮夕捷[1] 宋宇萌 RUI Xi-jie SONG Yu-meng(School of Economics and Management, Chang＇an University, Xi＇an 710064, Shaanxi, China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2017年第9期133-141,共9页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BZX034)

摘　　要：为了明确判断公路交通资源在区域经济中的配置效率并据此提出相应的有效决策,在分析公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平测度变量的基础上,运用主成分分析法对1993~2015年陕西公路交通供给和区域经济发展水平各测度变量的标准化数据进行降维,以获取测度公路交通供给和区域经济发展的2列综合数据,然后对其取对数以消除其异方差并降低波动性使其适用于Granger因果性分析,并对Granger因果性检验的结果进行经济学解释。研究结果表明:1993~2015年期间的任一年,陕西公路交通之前3年每年的供给是该年区域经济发展的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给未处于过度配置状态;陕西区域经济前1年的发展水平是该年公路交通供给配置的Granger原因,可见陕西公路交通供给配置长期处于短缺状态;综上2个方面,相对于区域经济的不断发展,陕西公路交通资源的配置长期低于合理水平;为使陕西区域经济中的私人品和作为(准)公共品的公路交通资源实现合理的配置,陕西公路交通应大力增加其供给规划。To determine the allocation efficiency of highway transportation resources in regional economy definitely and to make a corresponding effective decision based on it, after analyzing the measurement variables on supply of highway transportation and regional economy development, the method of principal component analysis （PCA） was used to reduce the dimensions of standardized data of variables measuring the supply of highway transportation and the regional economy development in Shaanxi from 1993 to 2015, with the purpose of obtaining two sets of synthetic data. By taking the logarithm of two sets of synthetic data to eliminate their heteroscedasticity and reduce fluctuation, Granger-causality test method was applied to their analyses, and the test results were explained by means of economics. The results show that, for any year from 1993 to 2015, the supply of Shaanxi highway transportation of every year in previous three years is the Granger cause of the regional economy development. It is clear that Shaanxi highway transportation supply isn＇t allocated excessively. On the other hand, Shaanxi regional economy development every year is the Granger cause of the highway transportation supply next year over the whole selected period. It is apparent that Shaanxi highway transportation is in short supply over the whole selected period. To sum up, the highway transportation resource allocation has been under the reasonable level for a long time with respect to the continuous development of regional economy in Shaanxi. In order to make a reasonable allocation of private goods and highway transportation resources as quasi-public goods in Shaanxi regional economy, the supply of Shaanxi highway transportation should greatly increase by planning.

关 键 词：交通工程 配置效率 Granger因果性 公路交通供给 区域经济发展 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]