基于VAR模型的有效税率结构对区域经济增长动态影响研究——以广东省为例  

Research on Effects of Effective Tax Rate Structure on Region Economic Growth Based on VAR Model——Taking Guangdong Province as an Example

作　　者：郭晓辉[1] GUO Xiaohui

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《上海立信会计金融学院学报》2017年第4期80-88,共9页Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"有效税率结构与区域经济增长:理论;实践与路径选择研究"

摘　　要：税率是影响经济增长的重要因素之一。文章通过测度1995-2012年广东省劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出有效税率,考察了其变化趋势和省域特征。在此基础上,构建了向量自回归模型,对有效税率结构的经济增长效应进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出有效税率对广东省的经济增长均有正向促进作用。据此,文章提出了中央政府要下放税权,地方政府要适时调整税收优惠的政策建议。Tax rate is one of the important factors that influences economic growth.By measuring the effective tax rate of labor income, capital income and consumption expenditure in Guangdong province in the past 1995-2012 years, this paper examines its changing trend and provincial characteristics. On this basis, the Vector Autoregression Model is constructed, and the economic growth effect of the effective tax rate structure is empirically analyzed. The empirical results show that the effective tax rate of labor income, capital income and consumption expenditure has a positive effect on the economic growth of Guangdong province. Accordingly, the paper puts forward the policy suggestion that the central government should lower the tax power, and the local government should timely adjust the preferential tax policy.

关 键 词：劳动收入税 资本收入税 消费支出税 经济增长 区域经济 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]