全球化背景下美国牛肉出口贸易格局研究——简析对中国牛肉市场价格的影响  

Research the beef export trade pattern of American under the background of globalization——The impact on the beef market price of China

作　　者：杨春[1] 朱增勇[2] 崔姹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第6期97-100,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503251);中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(1610052016002-1);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01);国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-35-22);农业部畜禽统计监测预警项目

摘　　要：伴随着中国牛肉消费需求的增加,牛肉贸易市场正逐步扩大,近期中美牛肉贸易在中断12年后解禁。本文在分析美国牛肉出口全球贸易格局和中美牛肉贸易走势的基础上,研究新型贸易下美国牛肉进入中国市场对牛肉市场价格的影响。结果显示,近期美国牛肉进入中国市场量小价高,进口量大幅增加的情况不会出现,进口超低价格的美国牛肉不太可能,短期对国内牛肉市场价格影响程度较小。长期来看,中国将逐步加大美国牛肉进口,在此情况下,分环节分析,除了屠宰销售环节外,对养殖环节出栏活牛价格会有小幅影响;分产品分析,对冻肉产品价格有一定影响,对鲜牛肉产品价格影响较小。With the increasing beef consumption demand, the market of beef trade is gradually expanding in China. Beef trade between China and American has been ended for 12 years. But now the ban is lifted. Based on the analysis of the global trade pattern of beef exports and the trend of Sino-US beef trade, this article examines the impact of American beef that entered the Chinese market under new trade. Results show, recently, American beef has entered the Chinese market with a high price and less import quantity. It＇s impossible to import American beef with low prices and big import quantity. In the short term, the impact on the domestic beef market price is small. In the long term, the import of American beef will gradually increase. On the sub-section analysis, in addition to slaughtering sales, it will impact the breeding link slaugh- ter live cattle prices. On the sub-product analysis, it has some effect on the price of frozen meat products, and has little impact on the price of fresh beef products.

关 键 词：牛肉进口价格 美国牛肉 中国牛肉市场 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F746.12