我国棉花价格波动及其影响因素分析  

An analysis on cotton price fluctuation and its influencing factors in China

作　　者：陆光米 段娣桃 朱再清[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第6期101-104,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：近年来,我国棉花价格受多重因素影响,其波动幅度较大。本文基于2005年8月-2016年12月的月度数据,运用VAR模型分析棉花支持政策、人民币汇率、棉花进口数量及进口到岸价对我国棉花价格的影响;再通过脉冲响应和方差分解,进一步分析各因素对我国棉花价格的冲击效应和贡献程度。结果表明:(1)从长期看,我国棉花价格与各影响因素之间存在长期均衡平稳关系。(2)从影响程度看,政府支持政策影响最显著、进口数量与进口到岸价影响次之、人民币兑美元汇率影响较弱,贡献度分别为13%、6%和3%。鉴于此,提出完善棉花目标价格补贴、规范棉花信息预警制度、设立棉花价格风险调节基金等政策建议。In recent years, cotton prices in China is affected by many factors, and the fluctuation is quite large. Based on monthly data from August 2005 to December 2016, using VAR model to analyze these influencing factors of cotton price in china. Including cotton support policy, the exchange rate of RMB against US Dollar, the import quantity and the import to port price. Impulse response and variance de- composition are used to further analyze the impact and contribution degree of various factors on cot- ton price fluctuation in China. Results showed that：（1）Long-term equilibrium relationship existed among these factors with cotton prices fluctuation. （2）From the impact level, the effects of cotton support policy is significant, the import quantity and the port price have strong effects, the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar is weak on cotton price fluctuation with the contribution degree are 13%,6% and 3%,respectively. So this paper puts forward these policy suggestions：perfecting cotton tar- get price subsidy, regulating cotton information collection and issuing early warning system, and set- ting up cotton price risk adjustment fund.

关 键 词：棉花价格 棉花支持性政策 人民币汇率 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]