基于长时间序列的北方生态脆弱区气候演变分析  

Characteristics of Climate Factor Change in Ecological Fragile Area of North China During 1951-2012

作　　者：李春燕 邓伟[1,2] 齐静[1,2] 唐燕秋[1] 丁佳佳[1] 孙荣[3] 宋丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市环境科学研究院,重庆400020 [2]重庆大学煤矿灾害动力学与控制国家重点实验室,重庆400044 [3]华侨大学化工学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《环境影响评价》2017年第5期78-83,共6页Environmental Impact Assessment

基　　金：国家重大科技专项(2013ZX07104-004-05);国家社科基金(16XJY017)

摘　　要：以北方典型生态脆弱区榆林市为例,利用1951—2012年地面气象观测站统计的气象资料,结合趋势分析和距平累积分析方法,对过去60年间该地区的气温和降水变化趋势进行了定量分析。研究结果显示:(1)过去60年间,研究区气温变暖趋势明显,年平均气温增加倾向率为0.20℃/a。(2)研究区降水在剧烈波动变化中趋于减少,研究时段内年降水量减少倾向率为-8.4mm/a。(3)榆林市经历了由冷湿气候向暖干气候的转变。(4)气温的升高对榆林市风沙天气和旱灾等气象灾害的发生有一定加剧作用,而降水的减少进一步增加了榆林市生态系统脆弱性程度。The temperature and precipitation changes in Yulin city from 1951 to 2012 are studied based on the meteorological data using trend and accumulated variance analysis. The results indicate that：（ 1） The change of temperature shows that the warming trend of Yulin city is obvious,the annual average temperature increase tendency rate is 0. 20 ℃/a.（ 2） The change of precipitation display that the precipitation in the strong changes tend to be less,the annual precipitation reduce tendency rate is 8. 4 mm/a.（ 3） Yulin city experienced the moist-cold climate transformed into the dry-warm during 1951-2012.（ 4） The rise of temperatures contributed to the sandstorm weather and drought in Yulin city,and the occurrence of meteorological disasters. With reduced precipitation,to further enhance the degree of ecosystem vulnerability of Yulin city.

关 键 词：生态脆弱区 榆林市 趋势分析 距平累积 气候演变 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]