中国天山山区降水特征及其研究进展  

An Overview of Precipitation Characteristics and Its Research Progress in Tianshan Mountains Area,China

作　　者：白磊[1,2,3] 李兰海 师春香[4] 刘铁[1] 孟现勇[5] 杨艳芬[6] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100046 [3]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [4]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [5]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [6]西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期38-48,共11页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：自治区科研创新项目(XJGRI2015017);中国科学院仪器功能开发技术创新项目(Y634231)

摘　　要：降水是中国干旱地区水循环过程的重要环节。作为中亚地区"水塔"的天山山区,气候变化背景下降水的变化都会深刻地影响中亚地区的生态及人文环境。近些年,利用多数据源、多角度研究天山山区复杂环流和地理条件下的水汽时空格局与变化趋势成为热点。通过对不同来源近期数据的分析表明,天山山区降水在不同尺度下呈现增长趋势,同时极端降水也呈现增长趋势;对与降水相关的其他因素的分析表明,天山山区净水汽通量和云量均呈现增加趋势,而日照和总辐射呈现减少趋势;然而,由年轮重建百年尺度近代降水和区域气候模式模拟降水的结果却反映出20世纪下半叶天山山区的降水呈减少趋势;对未来气候变化情景下的研究发现,未来天山山区降水总体上呈现增加趋势。Precipitation is a crucial driving factor of the water cycle in arid area of China,for Tianshan mountains area,the ＂ Water Tower＂ in the Central Asia,its change of precipitation under climate change deeply affects the ecological and social environment in Central Asia. In recent years,from many angles and using multi-data sources to study the spatial and temporal pattern and variation of water vapor under the conditions of complex terrain and local atmospheric circulation in Tianshan mountains area has become a hotspot for multidisciplinary research. Analyzing the recent data from sources,results show that the annual precipitation in Tianshan mountains area has tended to increase at different temporal scales accompanied with increasing trend on extreme precipitation. After analyzing the related factors with precipitation,results show that the net water vapor flux and cloud cover in Tianshan mountains area show an increasing trend with decreasing trend in daily sunshine and total radiation flux. However,the reconstruction precipitation from tree ring on centennial scale and regional climate model shows a decreasing trend in Tianshan mountains area after 1950 s. According to the research results of future climate change scenarios,the future precipitation of Tianshan mountains area tend to increase. The comprehensive study shows that the slope and elevation are highly correlation coefficient to the spatial pattern of precipitation in Tianshan mountains area.

关 键 词：流域 天山山区 径流 降水特征 降雪 灾害 高程 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]