中国不同强度暴雨年代际时空演变特征(1951—2010)  

Decadal Spatio-temporal Changes of Different Intensity Rainstorms in China (1951—2010)

作　　者：孔锋[1,2,3,4] 吕丽莉[1,2] 方建[5] 张黎黎[1] 王卓妮[1] Kong Feng Lyu Lili Fang Jian Zhang Lili Wang Zhuoni(China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing 100081 Research Centre for Strategic Development, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs ＆ Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875 School of Resources and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan Hubei 430079)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局发展研究中心,北京100081 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [5]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期75-85,共11页Journal of Capital Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：气象软科学自主项目(2017[36]);气象软科学重点项目(2017[21]);中国清洁发展机制基金(2014087);国家自然科学基金项目(41601561);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41621061)

摘　　要：全球变暖背景下特大暴雨越来越频繁,强度更大的暴雨因其致灾性更强,会导致更加严峻的暴雨洪涝风险.以往的研究都是将大暴雨和特大暴雨统归到暴雨之中,无法全面准确把握大暴雨和特大暴雨的时空动态变化特征.因此,本文采用中国659个气象站点的日值降水数据,以雨量、雨日和雨强为暴雨特征,分别计算了1951—2010不同年代三种不同强度暴雨(暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨)的统计特征,重点诊断分析了暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨的时空变化规律.结果表明在占总暴雨比例上,暴雨最大,大暴雨次之,特大暴雨最小;在时间上,中国年代际暴雨和大暴雨的雨量、雨日和雨强均呈现出动态增加的趋势,在空间上,仅雨量和雨日有扩张趋势,而雨强变化不甚显著.而年代际特大暴雨,在时间上雨量和雨日呈现出"先增—后减—再增"的变化特征,雨强则"先减—后增—再减";在空间上特大暴雨的雨量、雨日和雨强并未有十分显著的变化.中国暴雨在朝着极端化方向发展,极有可能是人文因素强迫并叠加自然因素作用的结果.Frequent extreme rainfall events under the background of global climate change have caused terrible harm to economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc., which has brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area. Heavy rainfall has become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk,and has been widely concerned by academic community and most sectors of the society. We use 659 meteorological stations to calculate heavy rainfall, torrential rainfall and extraordinary heavy rainfall in amounts,days and intensity decade by decade. The heavy rainfall,torrential rainfall and extraordinary heavy rainfall in total amounts decrease. In time series,decadal heavy rainfall and torrential rainfall in amounts,days and intensity from 1951 to 2010 increase significantly,with uneven increase rate at different stages,which appear rapid increasing in the early and recent periods. On the spatial pattern,decadal heavy rainfall and torrential rainfall in amounts and days has obvious trend of expansion from southeast coast to northwest inland. However,decadal heavy rainfall and torrential rainfall in intensity has no obvious change. Decadal extraordinary heavy rainfall in amounts and days presents ＂first increased-reduction-then add＂characteristics in time series. On the contrary,the intensity presents ＂first decreased-increased-then reduction＂. On the spatial pattern,decadal extraordinary heavy rainfall in amounts,days and intensity has no obvious change. Rainfall is going towards extremely in China which is the most likely result of the combined influence of human and natural factors.

关 键 词：暴雨等级 特大暴雨 区域差异 动态变化 中国 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]