中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较  

Comparison of the potential geographical distribution of foxtail millet(Setaria italica) predicted by different models

作　　者：高蓓[1,2] 胡凝[1] 郭彦龙 顾蔚[3] 邹继业[2] GAO Bei HU Ning GUO Yan-long GU Wei ZOU Ji-ye(jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorolog,College of Applied-Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China Remote Sensing Information Center for Agriculture of Shaanxi Province, Xi＇ an 710015, China National Engineering Labo- ratory for Resource Development of Endangered Chinese Crude Drugs in Northwest of China/College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi＇ an 710062, China）.)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室/应用气象学院,南京210044 [2]陕西省农业遥感信息中心,西安710015 [3]陕西师范大学西北濒危药材资源开发国家工程实验室/生命科学学院,西安710062

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2017年第10期3331-3340,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(41505096);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAI06A13-06);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(15JK1231);陕西省农业科技创新项目(2012NKC01-19)资助~~

摘　　要：谷子是中国干旱和半干旱区主要的粮食作物之一.它耐旱、耐瘠薄、抗逆性强、适应性广,是未来应对干旱形势的重要战略储备作物.本文基于谷子的157个地理分布点数据,利用中国谷子产量与环境指标的相关性分析,选出10个气候指标、7个土壤指标和3个地形指标,采用Max Ent、EMFA、RF和GAM共4个物种分布模型,分析中国谷子的潜在适宜性分布.结果表明:4种模型均可成功模拟谷子的潜在地理分布,其中,Max Ent模型的模拟效果最好.选用的环境指标中,水热条件对谷子生长最敏感.模型结果结合Arc GIS空间分析模块的结果表明,中国谷子的潜在适宜生长区(最适宜区和适宜区)总面积为55.68×10~4km^2,远远大于当前谷子的实际种植面积,主要集中在东北地区的东北平原、长白山以南与牡丹江流域,华北地区的淮河以北,华中地区汉江以东与大别山以北,西北地区的黄土高原、鄂尔多斯高原南部、祁连山脉东部、天山山脉东部与阿尔泰山脉,西南地区的重庆以北和贵州西部局地区域.Foxtail millet is one of the main food crops in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Due to its strong anti-adversity,wide adaptability and resistance against drought and barren,the foxtail millet is treated as an important strategic crop reserve for the future drought situation. In this study,data from 157 geographical distributions were used to choose 10 climatic indices,7 soil indices and3 topographical indices,which were based on the relationship between the foxtail millet production and the environmental factors. Four species distribution models,including maximum entropy model（ Max Ent）,ecological niche factor analysis（ ENFA）,random forest（ RF） and generalized additive model（ GAM）,were applied to analyze the potential geographic distribution of foxtail millet in China. The results showed that all four models did a good job in simulating the potential geographic distribution for foxtail millet and the Max Ent model was the best one. Precipitation and temperature were most sensitive to the distribution of foxtail millet among all selected environmental factors. The outputs of models,together with the Arc GIS spatial analyst module,displayed that the total potential suitable growing regions for the foxtail millet,including the highly and moderately suitable growing regions,occupied 55.68×10^4km^2,which were much larger than the actual foxtail millet growing area. The potential suitable growing regions were mainly located in northeast China,including the Northeast Plain,south of Changbai Mountain and Mudanjiang River basin,north China,including north of the Huaihe River,central China,including east of Hanjiang River and north of Dabie Mountains,northwest China,including Loess Plateau,the southern Ordos Plateau,the eastern Qilian Mountains,the eastern Tianshan Mountains and the Altai Mountains,and southwest China,including north of Chongqing and the western Guizhou Province.

关 键 词：谷子 物种分布模型 ARCGIS 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：S515[农业科学—作物学]