考虑指标期望前景理论的云模型决策方法及应用  

Decision Making Method for Cloud Model Based on Prospect Theory Considering Attribute Aspirations

作　　者：汪军[1] 朱建军[1] 王翯华[2] 张世涛[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]金陵科技学院,江苏南京211169 [3]安徽工业大学数理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山2430021

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第4期130-136,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD049);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171112;71401064;71502073);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(14YJC630120)

摘　　要：针对指标值为云模型且具有指标期望的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于前景理论的决策的方法。针对以云模型形式给出的属性评价值和期望值建立了相似性度量方法,根据累积前景理论和云模型相似度定义了前景价值函数,最后以方案之间的综合前景值差异最大化为目标建立权重寻优模型;案例说明了方法应用步骤和可行性。A method based on prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making problem in which the attributes given by cloud model and attribute aspirations are provided.The similarity measurement method is established between the attribute value and the attribute aspirations given by cloud model.The future value function is defined based on the cumulative prospect theory and cloud model similarity,the weight optimization model is established on the basis of the maximum comprehensive prospect value difference among the alternatives.The example illustrates the application and feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：云模型 前景理论 指标期望 相似度 方案排序 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]