高铁与城市交通对城市碳足迹影响研究  

Impact of HSR and Urban Traffic on Urban Carbon Footprint

作　　者：刘李红 李红昌[1] LIU Li-hong LI Hong-chang(School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第4期17-29,共13页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"集约;智能;绿色;低碳的新型城镇化道路研究"(13&ZD026);国家自然科学基金项目"基于交通/物流时间价值的经济时空关系研究"(41171113)

摘　　要：基于194个地级及以上城市2008-2013年的面板数据,研究高铁与城市交通对城市碳排放的影响效应。发现:1.高铁带来的广义可达性改善对城市碳排放的影响显著。通过促进区域均衡发展对东部城市有降低碳排放作用,而对中西部有增加碳排放作用;2.通过对私人交通的替代作用,城市公共交通对碳排放的影响为负。但公路对城市碳排放的影响为正;3.交通对碳排放的影响受城市规模的影响。其中,对东部地区的碳排放影响主要受经济规模影响,但对中部地区的影响主要受人口规模影响,说明中西部地区城市仍然处于不断集聚阶段;4.各交通变量对大规模城市的影响大于对中等城市的影响。研究结论:交通通过影响城市人口、经济、土地规模进而对城市碳排放产生影响。因此,通过交通引导城市人口、产业、土地合理布局,进而减少城市碳足迹具有重要意义。Based on the panel data of 194 cities at prefeeture level and above from year 2008 to 2013 in China, this paper analyses the impact of HSR and urban traffic on urban carbon emission. The results shows that, first, the accessibility improvement in its broad sense brought by HSR has a significant effect on urban carbon emission. Through balanced development between different regions, the cities in east China will have a decreased carbon emission while the central and western China will have an increased carbon emission. Second, urban public traffic, as a replacement of private transportation, has a negative influence on carbon emission, but not the roads, which has a positive influence. Third, the impact of traffic on carbon emission is also affected by the size of the city. To be specific, the im- pact on eastern China are mainly determined by the size of the economy, while the impact on central China is mainly affected by population size, which shows that the urban regions in central and western China are still at the stage of concentration. Last, the impact on large-scaled cities is greater than that on medium-sized cities. Conclusion is therefore drawn that making a reasonable layout of population, industry and land with the guide of traffic is significant in reducing the urban carbon footprint.

关 键 词：高铁 城市交通 城市规模 碳足迹 

分 类 号：F572.88[经济管理—产业经济]