基于小世界网络的电动汽车市场接受度预测模型  

Prediction Model of Market Acceptance of Electric Vehicles Based on Small World Network

作　　者：王宁[1] 潘慧中 刘向 唐林浩 WANG Ning PAN Huizhong LIU Xiang TANG Linhao(School of Automotive Studies, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China College of Transportation Engineering, Tonal University, Shanghai 200092, China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学汽车学院,上海200092 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第8期1160-1166,共7页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划(2015BAG11B00);上海市科技发展基金软科学研究重点项目(16692103700);上海市科学技术委员会科研计划(16DZ2349200)

摘　　要：基于复杂社会网络理论、消费者行为和消费者购买决策理论,构建了基于小世界网络的电动汽车市场接受度预测模型,并通过Netlogo软件仿真社会网络中消费者对电动汽车的接受过程.研究表明:电动汽车的市场接受度取决于消费者个体初始偏好和社会网络效应的共同作用,局部网络效应的影响大于全局网络效应;选择意见领袖为初始采用者、提高初始采用者比例、降低消费者购买意愿阈值等均会显著提高电动汽车的扩散规模和扩散速度.On the basis of the complex social network theory and consumer decision-making theory,a forecasting model of electric vehicle（EV）market acceptance was developed based on the small world network,and the adoption and diffusion process of EVs in social network was simulated through Netlogo software.The simulation results indicate that the EV market acceptance are decided by both the individual preferences and the social network utility and the local network utility show greater influence than the global network utility.Furthermore,selecting the opinion leaders as the initial adopters,increasing the proportion of initial adopters and reducing the purchase threshold of consumers can help to promote the adoption of EVs.

关 键 词：电动汽车 社会网络 消费者决策 市场接受度 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]