农村居民旅游消费影响因素的空间计量研究——基于静态和动态空间面板模型的比较分析  

A Spatial Econometric Study on the Influencing Factors of Tourism Consumption of Rural Residents——Comparative Analysis based on Static and Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

作　　者：邓祖涛[1,2] 吴必虎 DENG Zutao WU Bihu(School of Tourism and Hotel Management, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205, China College of Urban and Environmental Science, Pehing University, Beijing 100871, China)

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院旅游与酒店管理学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2017年第5期28-40,共13页Tourism Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BJY128)

摘　　要：利用2000-2010年的省际面板数据和空间计量模型,对影响中国农村居民的旅游消费因素进行了探究。结果表明:农村居民的旅游消费存在空间自相关性;农村居民人均纯收入、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比和恩格尔系数对农村居民的旅游消费没有显著性影响,而城乡收入比和城镇化对农村居民的旅游消费有显著的影响,其中城乡收入比产生负向作用,城镇化产生正向作用;农村居民的旅游消费还受到上一年的影响;中国三大地区农村居民的旅游消费影响因素存在差异。除了三大地区都受上一年旅游消费支出的影响外,东部地区仅受城镇化的影响;中部地区不仅受城镇化的影响,还受城乡收入比的影响;西部地区仅受农村居民人均纯收入的影响。为此,政府需要调整农业生产结构,提高农村居民的相对收入,在制定区域政策时应充分考虑空间溢出效应,加强区域旅游合作,稳步推进农村城镇化建设,培养农村居民旅游消费意识。Based on provincial panel data in the years from 2000 to 2010 and spatial econometrics model,this paper discusses influencing factors of tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents. The results are shown as follows. （1） there is spatial autocorrelation of tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents; （2） the per capita net income of rural residents, child dependency ratio, Engel coefficient and the elderly dependency ratio have no significant impact on rural residents＇ tourism consumption, while the urban and rural income ratio and urbanization have a significant impact on rural residents＇ tourism consumption. The urban and rural income ratio has a negative effect, while the urbanization has a positive effect; （3） tourism consumption of rural residents is also affected by the tourism consumption of rural residents in the last year; （4） the factors of tourism consumption of rural residents in three regions of China are different. In addition to the three major regions affected by last year＇s tourism consumption expenditure, the eastern region only by the impact of Urbanization; The central region is not only affected by urbanization, but also by the income of urban and rural areas; the western region is affected only by the per capita net income of rural residents. Hence, the government needs to adjust the agricultural production structure, improve the relative income of rural residents. When making the regional policy, the government should take full account of the spatial spillover effect, strengthen the regional tourism cooperation, steadily promote the construction of Rural Urbanization, cultivate the awareness of tourism consumption of rural residents, and enhance tourism consumption patterns.

关 键 词：农村居民 旅游消费 影响因素 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] F592