灰色模型在铁路软基沉降预测中的应用  

Engineering Application of Gray Model in Settlement Prediction of Railway Soft Foundation

作　　者：尹紫红[1] 高雪 赵丰年 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学土木工程学院,成都610031

出　　处：《路基工程》2017年第5期140-144,共5页Subgrade Engineering

基　　金：上海铁路局科研课题:沪通铁路软土路基沉降变形控制技术方法研究项目(10101k10096113)

摘　　要：依托上海至南通铁路DK84+420,DK85+900工点的建设,基于灰色理论,建立GM(1,1)灰色模型,分别采用等时矩和不等时矩观测方式,预测了两工点沉降趋势和最终沉降量。研究结果表明:沉降周期三个月内实测数据与预测数据相比,相对误差为4%左右,证明灰色GM(1,1)模型在软土沉降预测上可行;根据实测资料可构建灰色模型时间相应序列方程,预测出断面总沉降值,检验沉降值及沉降速度是否符合规范;同时可构建沉降预测方程,数值模拟沉降趋势。After the completion of the construction, soft subgrade will have a greater settlement. The settlement value determines the construction quality, safety and stability during operation period. Consequently it is clear that the soft subgrade settlement prediction is particularly important. Based on the gray theory, the GM （1, 1 ） gray model was established, relying on the construction of DK84 ＋ 420 and DK85 ＋ 900 working points from Shanghai to Nantong railway, and which predicted the subsidence trend of the two points and the final subsidence by using two observation methods of isochronous moments method and unequal moments method respectively. Research indicates that： compared the predicted data with the measured data in the three months of the subsidence period, the relative error is about 4 %, which proves that the gray model GM （ 1, 1 ） is feasible in the soft subgrade subsidence prediction; According to the measured data, the gray model time series equation can be constructed to predict the total subsidence value of the section, and to verify that whether the subsidence value and the subsidence velocity are in accordance with the standard; At the same time, the equation of subsidence prediction can be constructed and the subsidence trend is numerically simulated.

关 键 词：灰色理论 工后沉降 沉降预测 数值模拟 

分 类 号：TU447[建筑科学—岩土工程]