Variations in soil moisture over the ‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain＇ in China due to temperature change using the CNOP-P method and outputs from CMIP5  

作　　者：SUN GuoDong PENG Fei MU Mu 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [2]Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [4]Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2017年第10期1838-1853,共16页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91437111&41375111&41675104&41230420)

摘　　要：In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water(SSLW) due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain'(‘3H') region in China with the Common Land Model(CoLM). To evaluate the possible maximum response of SSLW to climate change, the combination of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter(CNOP-P) approach and projections from 10 general circulation models(GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5(CMIP5) are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, a new type of temperature change scenario, is determined by using the CNOP-P method and constrained by the temperature change projections from the 10 GCMs under a high-emission scenario(the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario). Numerical results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenario is stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenarios derived from the 10 GCMs and from their ensemble average in the entire ‘3H' region. In the northern region, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenario increases to0.1773 m^3 m^(-3); however, SSLW in the scenarios from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^(-3). In the southern region,SSLW decreases, and its variation(–0.0070 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the CNOP-P-type scenario is higher than each of the variations(–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^(-3)) due to the scenarios from the GCMs.In this study, the variations in surface soil liquid water（SSLW） due to future climate change are explored in the‘Huang-Huai-Hai Plain＇（‘3H＇） region in China with the Common Land Model（CoLM）. To evaluate the possible maximum response of SSLW to climate change, the combination of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to the parameter（CNOP-P） approach and projections from 10 general circulation models（GCMs） of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5（CMIP5） are used. The CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, a new type of temperature change scenario, is determined by using the CNOP-P method and constrained by the temperature change projections from the 10 GCMs under a high-emission scenario（the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario）. Numerical results have shown that the response of SSLW to the CNOP-P-type temperature scenario is stronger than those to the 11 temperature scenarios derived from the 10 GCMs and from their ensemble average in the entire ‘3H＇ region. In the northern region, SSLW under the CNOP-P-type scenario increases to0.1773 m^3 m^-3; however, SSLW in the scenarios from the GCMs fluctuates from 0.1671 to 0.1748 m^3 m^-3. In the southern region,SSLW decreases, and its variation（–0.0070 m^3 m^-3） due to the CNOP-P-type scenario is higher than each of the variations（–0.0051 to –0.0026 m^3 m^-3） due to the scenarios from the GCMs.

关 键 词：CNOP-P Surface soil liquid water CMIP5 Climate change Seasonal and regional heterogeneity 

分 类 号：S152.7[农业科学—土壤学]