土地利用/土地覆盖变化情景模拟研究进展  

Research Progress on Land-use and Land-cover Change Scenario Simulation

作　　者：刘甲红[1,2] 徐露洁 潘骁骏 胡潭高 张登荣[1,2] 吴祎越 王筱[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学遥感与地球科学研究院,浙江杭州311121 [2]浙江省城市湿地与区域变化研究重点实验室,浙江杭州311121 [3]浙江省第二测绘院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期551-560,共10页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41201458;21377166);杭州市科技发展计划项目(20150533B03)

摘　　要：土地利用/土地覆盖变化(Land-Use and Land-Cover Change,简称LUCC)是全球变化的重要组成部分,LUCC模拟模型是研究土地利用演变的重要方法.开展土地利用时空演变和预测模拟的研究,对合理规划土地利用,促进土地资源可持续发展具有重要意义.文中以LUCC为研究对象,综合近年来LUCC动态监测方面的相关研究,对各模型的应用及优缺点进行了详细论述,同时对LUCC的研究现状进行了总结,并对其发展趋势进行了展望.研究发现:1)LUCC预测模型由数量预测向空间预测、由单一模型向耦合模型发展;2)各模型有其优势及适用范围;3)多模型、多技术的综合应用是LUCC发展的必然趋势;4)LUCC模型缺乏对时间多尺度和长时间序列的研究;5)各系统之间的反馈关系以及"人类-环境"关系是LUCC的研究重点.Land-use and Land-cover Change（ LUCC） is the major part of global changes,and LUCC prediction modelare are the main methods for land change study. In order to planning land use reasonable and promote the ecological sustainable development,it is much be of great importance for the research of temporal-spatial evolution and prediction simulation of the earth resource. Taking LUCC as the object,and combining with a large amount of previous researches,this study discusses the applications as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each model,summarizes the recent research progress for LUCC,and prospects of the development trend. The results show that LUCC prediction models have make an evolution from quantity prediction models to spatial prediction models,and from single model to coupling models. And each model is advantage in the special aspect. The inexorable development trend of LUCC is the integrated application of multi-model and multi-technology. Multi-scale temporal analysis in LUCC models needs for a better research. Furthermore,the feedbacks among each system and the relations of human-environment also are the key pointsof LUCC study.

关 键 词：LUCC 系统动力学 元胞自动机 耦合模型 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]