气候变化对我国华南沿海地区水资源的影响——以南流江流域为例  

Impact of climate change on water resource in coastal areas of South China——A case study of Nanliujiang River catchment

作　　者：杨明智[1] 肖伟华[1] 鲁帆[1] 黄亚[2] 侯保灯[1] 李旭东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100038 [2]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期1951-1959,共9页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830637);广西水利厅科技项目(201402)

摘　　要：为研究气候变化对我国华南沿海地区的水资源的影响,以南流江流域作为研究对象,应用具有物理机制的分布式水文模型SWAT对流域径流进行模拟。以常乐站1970~1994年月径流数据对模型进行率定,以1995~2013年月径流数据进行验证,基于南流江流域气候变化预估成果设置20种未来气候情景,模拟不同气候变化条件下的流域水文过程,计算不同情景下南流江流域径流及蒸散发的变化,分析气候变化条件下的水资源响应程度。结果表明:月径流模拟值与实测过程线总体拟合程度很好(R2>0.85,Ens>0.8),SWAT模型在南流江流域具有较好适用性;降水是影响南流江流域径流变化的主要气候因子,而影响蒸散变化的主要气候因子是气温。降水不变时,气温每上升1℃,年均蒸散发量增加9.1 mm,年均径流量减少9.2 mm;气温不变时,降水量每增加10%,年均蒸散发量增加5.1 mm,年均径流量增加159.3 mm。预计到本世纪中叶,南流江流域年均径流变化幅度为-29.6%~27.6%,到本世纪末的变化幅度为-30.5%~26.7%,这将对南流江流域带来一系列的问题与挑战。In order to study the impact of climate change on water resource in the coastal areas of South China, Nanliujiang river basin was studied. SWAT model was used to simulate the runoff in the basin. The monthly flow data at Changle station from 1970 to 1994 were used to determine the model parameters, and the monthly flow data from 1995 to 2013 were used to verify the results. Based on the previous studies on future climate change of Nanliujiang river basin, a total of 20 climate change scenarios were constructed. The impacts on water resource under different climatic change scenarios in the basin were analyzed. The results show that the SWAT model has achieved the accuracy （R2〉0. 85, Ens〉0.8） and has good adaptability for the basin. Precipitation is the main climate factor affecting runoff, and air temperature is the main climate factor affecting evapotranspiration. For every degree the temperature increases, the evapotranspiration will increase by 9. 1 mm, and the runoff will decrease by 9.2mm ; the evapotranspiration will increase by 5.1 mm for 10% the precipitation increases, and the annual runoff will increase by 159.3 mm. It is estimated that the annual runoff depth varies from -29.6% to 27.6% towards the middle of the century and from -30.5% to 26.7% at the end of the century, which would bring a series of problems and challenges for the economic and social development of Nanliujiang river basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源 SWAT 南流江流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]