宁夏及邻区震群的前兆性分析  

The precursor analysis of earthquake swarms in Ningxia and its adjacent area

作　　者：任雪梅[1] 蔡新华[1] 盛菊琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏回族自治区地震局

出　　处：《中国地震》2016年第4期738-746,共9页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区科技攻关计划项目(2013ZYS145)资助

摘　　要：系统研究了宁夏及邻区35次小震群活动,总结了震群活动的参数特征,探讨了震群活动与中强以上地震的关系,分析检验了前兆震群类型的判定指标。1970年以来宁夏及邻区35次小震群中有10次对应了5级以上地震,灵武-吴忠地区利用震群预测5.0级以上地震的效果较好,不建议利用震群预测宁夏南部及邻区5.0级以上地震。通过前兆震群类型的判别判断后续是否有中强以上地震,总体而言效果并不十分理想,需要参考其它方法和手段综合判定。We systematically analyzed 10 out of the 35 earthquake swarms in Ningxia and its adjacent area, summarized the characteristics of earthquake swarms and discussed the relationship between earthquake swarms and medium-strong M≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Ningxia and its neighboring area since 1970. Swarm forecast is recommended for M≥5.0 earthquakes in the Lingwu-Wuzhong region but not for Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in southern Ningxia and its neighboring area. Whether there is a subsequent medium-strong earthquake, the general effect of the swarm precursor discrimination is not very good and need the reference to other methods and means.

关 键 词：宁夏及邻区 震群 参数特征 震群类型的判定指标 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]