Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario  

作　　者：LI Xiang-xiang JU Hui Sarah Garré YAN Chang-rong William D.Batchelor LIU Qin 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R. China [2]Agro-meteorological Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330096, P.R. China [3]Department of Biosystems Engineering, University of Liege, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Gembloux 5030, Belgium [4]Biosystems Engineering Department, Auburn University, AL 36849, USA

出　　处：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》2017年第10期2308-2322,共15页农业科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,2012CB955904);the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 12th Five-year Plan period (2012BAD09B01);the National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (41401510)

摘　　要：Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain （3H Plain）, which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics （drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity） for the past 50 years （1961-2010） and under future scenarios （2010-2099）, based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices： the standardized precipitation index （SPI）, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation （SPEI-PM） and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation （SPEI-TH） to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using ＇run theory＇ for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential to reduce vulnerability and establish adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain （3H Plain）, which is a major grain production area in China. In this paper, we investigated the variations in drought characteristics （drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity） for the past 50 years （1961-2010） and under future scenarios （2010-2099）, based on the observed meteorological data and the Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5 scenario, respectively. First, we compared the applicability of three climatic drought indices： the standardized precipitation index （SPI）, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on the Penman-Monteith equation （SPEI-PM） and the same index based on the Thornthwaite equation （SPEI-TH） to correlate the recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, we analyzed the drought characteristics using ＇run theory＇ for both historical and the future RCP 8.5 scenario based on the best performing index. Correlation analyses between drought indices and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, drought risks including duration, severity and intensity during 1961-2010 showed an decreasing trend. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is expected to rise in frequency, duration, severity, and intensity from 2010-2099, although drought components during the 2010-2039 are predicted to be milder compared with historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would create differences in the prediction of long-term drought trends by different drought indices. The results of this study can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought management strategies.

关 键 词：climate change drought index drought characteristics Huang-Huai-Hai Plain 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]