广西壮族自治区2014—2016年水痘疫情时空分布特征分析  

Epidemiological characteristics on temporal-spatial distribution of varicella in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, 2014-2016

作　　者：许意清 付志智[1] 周健宇[1] 邓革红[1] 宫晨[1] 蔡富文 韩姗珊 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心信息管理科,南宁530028

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2017年第10期1390-1393,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：广西壮族自治区卫生和计划生育委员会自筹经费项目（Z2016438）

摘　　要：目的分析2014—2016年广西壮族自治区（广西）水痘疫情的时空分布特征，为水痘防控工作提供依据。方法水痘疫情数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病疫情报告监测数据，地理信息数据来源于中国CDC。采用ArcGIS10．2软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析水痘发病的空间聚集性，采用SaTScanv9．1．1软件进行时空扫描分析水痘疫情的时空聚集性。结果广西2014--2016年水痘报告发病率分别为32．48／10万、43．56／10万和61．56／10万。在县级水平发病整体上存在正向空间自相关（Moran’S，在0．24～0．35之间，P〈0．01），高发病、高一高聚集区较为一致，均分布于广西西北部地区。时空扫描结果显示，发病主要聚集时间为每年的10月至次年1月，每年的一类聚集区主要分布于河池市全部和百色市大部分地区，基本覆盖了广西西北部地区，2016年在广西东北部地区以灌阳县为中心和南部地区以海城县为中心，分别出现1个波及范围较广的二类聚集区。结论广西水痘疫情呈现上升趋势，发病在整体上呈现较明显的时空聚集性，西北部地区聚集性高，需重点防治。此外，在水痘高发季节需加强对其周边地区的防控力度。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution on varicella in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region （Guangxi） during 2014 to 2016. Methods Incidence data on varicella was collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System （NNIDRIS） of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention （CDC） while geographic information data was from the national CDC. ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to analyze global and local spatial auto correlation on spatial clusters. SaTScan v9.1.1 was used to conduct temporal-spatial scan for exploring the areas of temporal-spatial clusters. Results The overall incidence rates of varicella during 2014 to 2016 were 32,48/100 000, 43.56/100 000 and 61.56/ 100 000 respectively. Incidence of varicella showed a positive spatial auto correlation at the county level （the value of Moran＇ s Ⅰ was between 0.24 to 0.35, P〈0.01）, with consistent high morbidity. High-high cluster areas were seen and mainly concentrated in the north-western areas of Guangxi. Result from the temporal-spatial scan showed that temporal cluster of varicella occurred mainly between October and next January while the type I cluster area was mainly distributed in all of the counties in Hechi city and most counties of Baise city, with most counties being covered in the north-western areas of Guangxi, during 2014-2016. When comparing to data from the last two years, two type Ⅱ cluster areas with larger scales were formed in the north-eastem area of Guanyang county and Haicheng county of southem area in Guangxi, in 2016. Conclusions Incidence on Varicella seemed on the rise, and the distribution of cases showed clustered features, both on time and space. Strategies regarding control and prevention on Varicella should focus on high-high clustered areas, namely north-western areas of the province, including surrounding areas during the high onset season.

关 键 词：水痘 空间自相关性 时空扫描 时空聚集 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R511.5[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]