应用德尔菲法构建男男性行为者个体HIV感染风险评估工具  

Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method

作　　者：李玲玲[1] 江震[2] 宋炜路[2] 丁盈盈[1] 徐杰[2] 何纳[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室,上海200032 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2017年第10期1426-1430,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：上海市第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划项目（GWTD2015S05,15GWZK0101）;国家卫生和计划生育委员会疾病预防控制局项目

摘　　要：目的构建MSM个体HIV感染风险评估工具。方法在查阅文献的基础上，应用德尔菲法经过2轮专家咨询调查，综合考虑17位专家的意见与建议，确定评估工具指标及参考风险分值。结果2轮专家咨询调查积极系数分别为100．0％和94．1％；专家权威程度（cr）均值为0．86；肯德尔和谐系数（Kendall’s w）分别为0．55（X2=84．426，P〈0．001）、0．46（X2=65．734，p〈0．001），表明专家意见趋于一致，研究结果可靠性高。最终确定终稿“MSM个体HIV感染风险评估工具”包括8个指标。结论应用德尔菲法建立的“MSM个体HIV感染风险评估工具”可用于评估MSM人群HIV感染风险，进而开展个性化预防干预，但还有待进一步信度、效度评价。Objective To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men （MSM） based on Delphi method. Methods After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0% and 94.1%, respectively. The mean of authority coefficients （Cr） was 0.86. Kendall＇ s W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation （X2=84.426, P〈 0.001） and 0.46 for the second round consultation （ X2= 65.734, P〈 0.001）, respectively, suggesting that the specialists had similar opinions. The final HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

关 键 词：男男性行为者 德尔菲法 HIV 风险评估 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]