基于M-K、小波和R/S方法的豫南地区气候变化的多时间尺度分析  

Multi-time Scales Analysis of Climate Changes Based on Methods of M-K,Wavelet and R/S in Southern Henan Province

作　　者：翟秋敏[1] 张文佳 安宁 李国栋[1] ZHAI Qiumin ZHANG Wenjia AN Ning LI Guodong(College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Henan Kaifeng 475004, Chin)

机构地区：[1]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期532-543,共12页Journal of Henan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1404401);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划(201510475015)

摘　　要：为揭示地处亚热带-暖温带过渡带豫南地区的气候变化规律和趋势,选取豫南地区气象站台62年的逐年气候资料,采用M-K突变检验、小波分析和R/S分析等方法分析了该区的气候变化特征.经趋势分析认为研究区近60年来年平均气温上升趋势显著,变化倾向率为0.17℃/10a;年平均降水量减少速率为9.6 mm/10a,但减少趋势不明显.通过M-K突变检验,该区年平均气温突变时间点为1994年,并且增温率主要是近20年以来的增温贡献;年平均降水量不存在显著突变时间点.经小波分析认为,研究区年平均气温、年平均降水量的震荡周期均存在多时间尺度结构,可认为由"大-中-小"三重嵌套而成;准30年是该区年平均气温最主要的震荡周期,次主要周期为准15年,年平均降水量则是以准15年为主周期,准3年和准7年共同构成其第二主周期;该区在未来15~20年间处于一个相对较冷的时期,在未来5~10年进入到较大尺度冷期背景下的暖期并且在未来10年将是一个降水量偏低的时期.R/S分析再次表明近60年来年平均气温呈现显著升高趋势以及未来一段时间将进入到降水量偏低的时期.In this paper,based on the data of year-by-year temperature and precipitation in 3 weather stations of Zhumadian,Xinyang and Nanyang near the Qinling-Huaihe Line in the last 62 years,methods of linear fitting,coefficient of deviation,Mann-Kendall mutation testing,wavelet transform,the R/S analysis and so on were used to analyze the characteristics of climate changes in the southern region of Henan province located in the belt between the subtropical zone and temperate zone of our country.The results show that the annual average temperature in Qinling-Huaihe Line in Henan section has risen significantly since nearly 60 years.The tendency rate of inter-annual variation is 0.17 ℃/10 a,while the reduction rate of average annual precipitation is 9.6 mm/10 a.Hence the decreasing trend is not so notable without significance test.It also can be judged that 1994 is viewed as mutation time point by means of Mann-Kendall mutation testing,and it is calescence of the past twenty years that contributed the so-called warming rate.There does not exist to be significant mutation time point for average annual precipitation as well.By wavelet analysis,multi-scale structure exists in the oscillation period of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in this region,generally considered to be triple-nested with ＂medium and small＂.The major temperature oscillation cycle of the annual average temperature is quasi 30 year,while the inferior period is quasi 15 year.Analysis of periodic signal suggests that the next 15~20 years will be a relatively cold period for the research area,with the first 5 to 10 years it will remain warm for a comparatively short time against a background of a coldperiod on a large scale.Quasi 15 year would become the dominant period of annual mean precipitation in this area,quasi 3 year and quasi 7 year as the second leading period.According to the time series analysis of the signal called precipitation cycle signal,the area will be possibly at a period when precipitation is subnormal in the next decad

关 键 词：气候变化 M-K突变检验 小波分析 R/S分析 豫南地区 

分 类 号：P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]