中国—东盟自由贸易区对双边贸易产品结构的影响  

The Effect of China-ASEAN FTA on the Product Structure of Bilateral Trade

作　　者：张中元[1] 沈铭辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院

出　　处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》2017年第5期130-144,共15页Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

基　　金：中国-东盟研究院"教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划"(合同编号:CW201405)项目的支持

摘　　要：通过对中国与其185个贸易伙伴在1995年至2013年间的相关商品贸易数据进行分析,发现:中国与东盟各国出口、进口的贸易之间既存在较强的互补性,也具有明显的竞争性;中国对东盟各国的出口产品集中度指数都较低且大都呈下降趋势;但中国对东盟各国的进口产品集中度指数较高,而且各国情况差异较大。通过双重差分法实证检验中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立对中国与东盟各国双边贸易产品结构的影响,结果发现:中国、东盟双方签署《货物贸易协议》促进了中国与东盟各国之间的进、出口产品的互补性;但没有加重中国与东盟各国之间的出口、进口产品的竞争性;《服务贸易协议》促进了中国与东盟各国之间的进、出口产品的互补性;降低了中国与东盟各国之间的出口、进口产品的竞争性;《投资协议》并没有明显促进中国与东盟各国之间的进、出口产品的互补性;没有加重中国与东盟各国之间的出口产品的竞争性,但降低了中国与东盟各国之间的进口产品的竞争性;中国—东盟自由贸易区的建设虽然对中国与东盟各国之间的出口产品的集中度没有显著影响;但明显降低了中国从东盟各国之间的进口产品的集中度,提高了中国从东盟各国进口产品的多样性。未来中国、东盟就自贸区进一步开展升级谈判时,可将双边贸易结构特征体现在未来自贸区升级版的安排中,引导双边资源的合理流动和整合,实现双边产业的优势互补与共赢发展。An analysis of the trading partners from 1995 to relevant commodity trade 2013 shows that there is a data between China and its 185 strong complementarity in import and export trade between China and ASEAN countries as well as obvious competitiveness. The concentration indexes of China＇s exports to ASEAN countries are both relatively low and on a decreasing trend. However, its import concentration indexes from ASEAN coun- tries are relatively high, and with great difference among them. This paper also uses differ- ence-in-differences method to explore the effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the product structure of bilateral trade and the results suggest that the China-ASEAN A- greement on Trade in Goods promotes the complementarity of import and export products and doesn＇t increase competition between import and export products in the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries. The Agreement on Trade in Services promotes the complementarity of import and export products and reduces the competition of import and export products in the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries. And The A- greement on Investment has no obvious effects on the complementarity of the import and ex- port products between China and ASEAN countries. Nor does it intensify the competition of their export products. But it reduces the import competition between China and ASEAN countries. The construction of China-ASEAN FTA has no significant effects on export con- centration between China and ASEAN countries, but has significantly reduced China＇s im- port products concentration and improved its import products diversity from ASEAN coun- tries. So China can introduce such features of bilateral trade structure into the future upgra- ding negotiations on the China-ASEAN FTA, so as to guide the production factors of both sides to flow and integrate freely, and to achieve win-win development of their industries and bilateral trade.

关 键 词：中国-东盟自由贸易区 贸易产品结构 贸易便利化 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]