欧洲量化宽松政策对中国企业出口影响——一个汇率网状溢出效应视角  

European Quantitative Easing Policy Impact on China's Manufacturing Export:A Viewpoint of Exchange Rate Network Spillover Effects

作　　者：张靖佳[1] 孙浦阳[2] 古芳 ZHANG Jingjia SUN Puyang GU Fang(APEC Study Center, Nankai Universit School of Economics, Nankai Universit School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua Universit)

机构地区：[1]南开大学APEC研究中心,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《金融研究》2017年第9期18-34,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大研究项目(项目批准号:16JJD790026);国家社科项目"国际金融危机对发展中国家发展的影响研究"(项目编号:12BJL049)的重要阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文首次构建了欧洲量化宽松政策的汇率溢出效应对我国微观企业出口行为影响的理论模型,运用面板固定效应模型有效检验了欧洲量化宽松政策汇率溢出效应对我国微观企业出口行为的影响。研究结果表明:(1)从总体效果来看,欧洲量化宽松政策的汇率溢出效应促进了我国企业出口额和出口量的增长;(2)我国企业对出现升值反应的国家出口额(量)增加使我国企业对出现贬值反应的国家出口额(量)缩减;(3)我国企业对相对人民币升值的国家出口额(量)增加,对相对人民币贬值的国家出口额(量)缩减;(4)一般贸易在汇率溢出效应的影响下,出口额和出口量增长幅度最大,而加工贸易企业的出口行为受到的影响最小;(5)汇率溢出效应对外资企业和民营企业的出口积极影响最大,国有出口企业受到的影响最小。We develop a theoretical model of European quantitative easing policy impact on Chinese export through the perspective of exchange rate spillover effects for the first time. We also test the exchange rate spillover effects on exporters in China with the panel fixed effect model. Our results show that, firstly, the spillover effects stimulate the export value and volume of Chinese firms on the whole. Secondly, it turns out that when firms export to a destination country which appreciates under the influence of European quantitative easing policy, the export value and volume will be improved, and the results are opposite for the countries depreciate. Thirdly, we find that the export value and volume improved when we export to the countries appreciate relative to China, and vice versa for the counterpart. Furthermore, our results show that the ordinary trade will be affected most compared to the processing trade. The impacts of exchange rate spillover effect on state - owned - enterprises are limited, while foreign - owned - enterprises will benefit most from European quantitative easing policy.

关 键 词：欧洲量化宽松政策 汇率溢出效应 微观企业出口行为 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F821.0[经济管理—产业经济]