延迟退休、财政支出结构调整与养老金替代率  

Postponed Retirement,Government Expenditure Structure Adjustment and the Replacement Ratio

作　　者：严成樑[1] YAN Chengliang(School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economic)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《金融研究》2017年第9期51-66,共16页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(16BJL059,16ZDA005,14ZDB120);北京市社科基金项目(15JGA015);霍英东教育基金会基础性研究课题(151083)的资助

摘　　要：本文构建了一个包含延迟退休和财政支出的跨期叠代模型,考察延迟退休和财政支出结构调整对养老金替代率的影响。本文的研究表明,延迟退休和财政支出中社会保障支出比例上升使得养老金替代率上升。相应的传导机制是,延迟退休使得储蓄减少,这又使得均衡状态的资本和工资收入下降。延迟退休通过工资收入下降的渠道对社保收入具有负面影响,通过增加社保缴纳人数渠道对社保收入具有正面影响。财政支出中社会保障支出增加使得生产性财政支出减少,这降低了资本回报率,使得均衡状态的资本和工资水平下降。社会保障支出对社保收入具有直接的正向影响,但又会通过工资水平下降渠道对社保收入具有负面影响。本文认为,在实施延迟退休政策和增加社会保障支出比例的同时,应从宏观视角和微观视角采取经济增长刺激计划,以实现福利改善。This paper presents an overlapping generation model including postponed retirement and government expenditure, and we explore the effect of postponed retirement and adjustment of government expenditure on the replacement ratio. We find that postponed retirement and government social security expenditure have positive effect on the replacement ratio. Postponed retirement decreases saving, which in turn lowers both capital per capita and wage income. Postponed retirement decreases pension through its negative impact on wage income, whereas it has positive effect on pension through its impact on the labor supply. Government social security expenditure lowers productive expenditure, which in turn has negative effect on capital and wage income. Government social security expenditure can increase pension directly. Our results suggest that, the government should adopt growth enhancing program from both macro and micro perspectives, so as to improve social welfare.

关 键 词：延迟退休 财政支出结构 养老金替代率 经济增长 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F812.45[经济管理—国民经济] F842.67