奥巴马政府对台政策:介于“再平衡”与“再保证”之间  

The Obama Administration's Taiwan Policy:Between Strategic Rebalance and Strategic Reassurance

作　　者：忻怿 Xin Yi(PhD candidate at the Department of History, Sun Yat-sen University)

机构地区：[1]中山大学历史学系

出　　处：《台海研究》2017年第3期64-77,共14页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：奥巴马政府时期,中美实力对比发生变化,地区秩序出现由中美二元并立,向二元共治转换的态势。在对华强硬派推动下,奥巴马政府布局"亚太再平衡"战略,台湾、钓鱼岛与南海成为美国禁绝中国改变地区秩序的三道红线。美方虽未言明台湾在"再平衡"中的地位及作用,但对美台关系予以战术性强化。奥巴马政府第二任期,"再平衡"遭到某种程度弱化,中美"战略再保证"发挥重要影响。基于此,美台关系维持战略稳定的总态势,战术强化程度有限。在中美实力对比改写之前,"再平衡"与"再保证"双轨统摄下的美国对华战略,决定了其对台政策具有"战略维稳"与"战术强化"的双重保险特征。这一策略既可能为特朗普政府所继承,也将导致台湾问题在未来一个相当长时期内继续延宕不决。During the Obama administration, the balance of power between China and the United States kept shifting to China＇s favor, and a regional order based on China-U. S. cooperation was replacing that which featured competition between both countries. Under the influence of those hard- liners toward China, the Obama administration put forward the ＂Strategic Rebalance＂ strategy aimed at preventing China from rewriting the regional order, and Taiwan the South China Sea were three key points of the strategy. Tacit as it was a bo the Diaoyu Islands and ut Taiwan~ s role in the Rebalance strategy, the United States kept strengthening its relationship with Taiwan on the tactic level. Yet during Obama＇s second term, the Rebalance strategy was weakened while both China and the United States were taking efforts to enhance their ＂Strategy Reassurance. ＂ As a result, the U. S. -Taiwan relationship remained largely stable with few new breakthroughs on the tactic level. It is expected that the U. S. ~ China policy will fall between ＂Strategic Rebalance＂ and ＂Strategic Reas- surance＂ before their balance of power changes substantially, which determines that the Trump ad- ministration will keep stabilizing the U. S. -Taiwan relationship on the strategic level while trying to strengthen the relationship on the tactic level, and that the Taiwan Question will remain unsettled for quite a long time into the future.

关 键 词：奥巴马政府 美台关系 “再平衡” “再保证” 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]