资产价格波动与货币政策选择  

Asset Fluctuation and Monetary Policy Choice

作　　者：瞿凌云[1] 陈棣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行合肥中心支行,安徽合肥230091

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2017年第10期8-14,共7页Financial Theory and Practice

摘　　要：2015年以来,我国资产价格剧烈波动是在低通货膨胀环境下出现的资产价格泡沫,由此凸显市场投资投机需求旺盛。经验研究表明,房地产价格波动为短周期行为,具有较强增长刚性;股票价格波动兼具短周期和长周期行为,价格弹性度高。货币流动性及中长期信贷占比的变化趋势能为资产价格泡沫提供有用的预警信息。实证研究表明,资产价格的波动隐含着未来一定时期的通货膨胀和产出的变化信息。针对资产价格属性的区别,货币政策应差异化调控。Since 2015, in a stable low-inflation environment, stock prices and real estate prices as the representative of the asset prices have produced violent fluctuations in china, there have been asset price bubble. This highlights the strong market demand for investment speculation. The empirical study shows that the real estate price fluctuation is short cycle behavior, there is no complete medium period,the price has strong growth rigidity. The stock price both have short and long cycles behavior, the price is high elasticity. From the point of view of monetary policy, monetary liquidity, monetary liquidity structure, medium and long term credit ratio are related to asset price fluctuation cycle, which can provide useful warning information for the asset price bubble. The empirical study shows that the current asset price fluctuations implied information of the future period of output and inflation. For the difference between asset price attributes, monetary policy should be differentiated regulation.

关 键 词：资产价格 货币政策 流动性 产出 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]