基于Logistic模型的微博舆情热点发展预测研究  

Research on a Prediction Model of the Development of Microblog Hot Topics Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：罗泰晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2017年第10期91-95,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：微博是网络舆情的重要平台。微博舆情热点的发展一般经历发生、扩散、缓解、消退等阶段。相应地,在舆情规模上成"S"形走势。由此,建立基于Logistic模型的预测模型,并用新浪微博实例证明了该模型能够有效预测自组织状态下微博舆情热点的发展。Microblog is an important platform for online public opinion.The life cycle of a hot microblog topic mainly includes four stages：emergence,expansion,remission and fading.Correspondingly,the scale of the topic presents an s-shaped development.In this paper,based on logistic curve,we built a model to predict the development of hot microblog topics under self-organizing situations.Examples from Sina Microblog were used to prove the validity of the model.

关 键 词：微博 舆情热点 预测 Logistic曲线 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]