利用区域回归分析法对阿克苏地区人工防雹作业效果再分析  

Regression Analysis of Artificial Hail Suppression Effect in Akesu Prefecture of Southern Xinjiang

作　　者：李斌[1] 郑博华 史莲梅[1] 朱思华[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2017年第9期1756-1764,共9页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目(GYHY201306047);自治区重大专项"新疆吐鲁番哈密地区空中云水资源开发利用";科技支撑项目"新疆绿洲人工防雹减灾效果评估研究"(TUHA201525)~~

摘　　要：【目的】评估阿克苏地区开展人工防雹作业前后年雹灾面积的差异性,分析该地区人工防雹作业效果,为开展人工防雹工作提供科学依据。【方法】利用阿克苏地区和喀什地区1978年~2013年的年雹灾面积统计资料,以1996年作为阿克苏地区开展人工防雹作业开始年,采用统计学的区域回归分析法,将喀什地区作为对比区,分析阿克苏地区科学开展人工防雹作业前后各18 a的年雹灾面积差异性。【结果】阿克苏地区科学开展人工防雹作业后,平均年雹灾面积减少23 802 hm^2,相对减少率为54.5%。结合农业经济数据,年平均减少雹灾损失44 417×10~4元,年投入产出比接近1∶10,统计显著性水平高达0.01。【结论】阿克苏地区通过科学开展人工防雹作业后,冰雹灾害损失显著减小,取得的社会、经济效益显著。【Objective】To further evaluate the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Aksu in the hope of analyzing the effect.【Method】In this paper,the method of the regression test of areas was applied,the differences of annual hailstorm areas before and after 18 a of the scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression period in Akesu were analyzed with annual hailstorm areas data from 1978-2013 in Aksu and Kashi with 1996 as the year of artificial hail suppression.【Result】The results showed that the average annual hail area was reduced 23,802 hm^2,and the relative loss rate was 54. 5% after the operation of scientifically artificial hail suppression in Aksu. Combined with the agricultural economic data,the average annual reduction of hail disaster loss was 444,170,000 RMB,annual input and output ratio nearly was 1 ∶ 10. The statistical significant level highly reached α =0. 01.【Conclusion】Therefore,through scientifically carrying out artificial hail suppression operations,it is obvious that hail disaster losses reduced and the social and economic benefits are great in Aksu.

关 键 词：人工防雹 区域回归 效果评估 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]