城市洪涝灾害应急物流能力演化研究  

Evolution of Emergency Logistics Capacity in Urban Flood Disasters

作　　者：刘明菲[1] 张银霞 程斌武[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第5期1-7,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心项目(JD20160215);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172042)

摘　　要：为提高城市洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力,科学合理地对洪涝灾害应急物流能力发展和演化进行预测,以资源配置为视角,将城市洪涝灾害应急物流能力分为资源保障能力、抢险救援能力、恢复重建能力,并基于Logistic曲线建立了城市洪涝灾害应急物流能力演化模型,选取指标并以洪涝灾害多发区湖北省为例,使用Matlab编程对三种能力的演化进行预测,分析了其所处的生命周期阶段,揭示了城市洪涝灾害应急物流能力演化的规律,为政府提高洪涝灾害应急物流能力提供指导。In order to improve capacity of the urban flood disaster prevention and mitigation and predict the evolution of flood disaster emergency logistics capacity scientifically,the study divides the urban emergency logistics capacity into resources guarantee capacity,emergency rescue capacity,restoration and reconstruction capacity in the perspective of resource allocation.Based on the logistic curve,we establish an evolution model of urban flood disaster logistics emergency capacity and select indicators and Hubei Province as an example.This study uses Matlab programming on the evolution of emergency logistics capacity and analyzes the stages of the life cycle.The research reveals the law of the evolution of urban flood disaster emergency logistics capacity,and provides guidance for the government to improve the logistics capacity in flood disasters.

关 键 词：城市洪涝灾害 应急物流能力 演化 Logistic曲线 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]