窟野河流域径流变化及其影响因素研究  

Study of runoff variation characteristics and influence factors in Kuye River

作　　者：郭巧玲[1] 韩振英[1] 丁斌[2] 苏宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454003 [2]黄河水利委员会信息中心,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水资源保护》2017年第5期75-80,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41201020);河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划项目(15IRTSTHN027)

摘　　要：依据窟野河入黄控制站——温家川水文站1955—2013年实测径流和降水数据,通过线性趋势、累积距平曲线、R/S等分析方法,分析了窟野河年、汛期、非汛期径流变化特性。同时,采用M-K秩相关检验、双累积曲线法分析了降水及人类活动对年、汛期、非汛期径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)年、汛期、非汛期径流量总体上均表现出减少趋势,且未来一段时间3个时段径流量均有持续减少的态势;(2)年、汛期和非汛期径流量的阶段性变化特征为1955—1978年处于明显上升阶段,1979—1995年在微弱的波动中下降,1996—2013年呈现显著的下降趋势;(3)1979—1995年,降水对年、汛期径流量减少的影响值分别为0.868亿m3和0.810亿m3,是影响径流量减少的主要原因之一;1996—2013年,人类活动成为影响年、汛期径流量减少的主导因素,影响值分别高达4.622亿m3和3.198亿m3。对于非汛期,1979年以来,人类活动一直是影响径流量减少的主导因素且呈增加趋势。Based on the actual measurement of precipitation and runoff data in Wenjiachuan hydrological station during the year of 1955-2013,the variation of annual, flood season and non-flood season runoff were studied by Linear trend, cumulative anomaly curve, R/S analysis. Meanwhile, the effects of precipitation and human activities on annual, flood season and none-flood season runoff variation were analyzed by M-K correlation test and double mass curve method. The results showed that（1） the runoff of annual, flood season and non-flood season in Kuyeriver had a decreasing tendency, and this decreasing trends would continue during certain period of time in the future. （2） The stage change characteristics of annual, flood season and non-flood season runoff rise significantly in 1955-1978, decrease with the weak fluctuation in 1979-1995, and displays the significant downward trend in 1996-2013. （3 ） In 1979 - 1995, precipitation was one of the main factors to influence the runoff variation of annual and flood season, and the influence values reached to 0. 868 ×10 8m3 and 0. 810 ×10 8m3 respectively. In 1996 -2013 , human activities became the main force to affect the annual and flood season runoff decrease, and the influence values had come to 4. 622 ×10 8m3and 3. 198 ×10 8m3 respectively. For the non-flood season,human activities have been the dominant factor to affect the runoff change since 1979and its influence are on the increase.

关 键 词：径流变化 累积距平曲线 R/S分析 M-K秩相关检验 双累积曲线法 窟野河 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]