泰勒规则在我国基准利率确定中的应用  

The Application of Taylor Rule in the Determination of Benchmark Interest Rate of China

作　　者：徐冯璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江金融职业学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2017年第4期32-40,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家留学基金资助地方合作项目(录取文号:留金法[2013]5045;证书编号:201308330430)

摘　　要：随着我国利率市场化改革的深入,强化利率调控的呼声越来越强烈,如何科学确定基准利率成为货币政策中关注的焦点。以美国为代表的利率市场化国家把泰勒规则作为利率调控的重要依据。本文在深刻比较中美两国泰勒规则实施背景差异的基础上,以2008年国际金融危机为分割点,就危机前后及整体层面的非线性视角对泰勒规则在我国20年利率市场化改革中的适用性进行检验。结果显示,泰勒规则在我国是一个稳定的利率规则,可以作为央行利率调控的参考。但利率对产出缺口的反应很小,说明利率传导机制存在阻碍。而且,危机前后泰勒规则出现某些结构性变化,说明国际冲击对我国金融市场有较大影响,货币政策的独立性受到挑战。Nowadays,more and more people call for interest rate adjustment intensively as the reform of China＇s interest rare liberalization deepens. How to determine the benchmark interest rate has become the focus of monetary policy. Taylor rule is considered as an important basis for interest rate adjustment in market-oriented countries like The United States. Regarding the international finanacial crisis of 2008 as a breakpoint,after comparing the different implementation background of Taylor rule between the U. S.and China,this paper tests the application of Taylor rule in China＇s interest rate liberalizaion reform for 20 years from a nonlinear perspective. The result shows that Taylor rule is a stable interest rate rule in China and may serve asa good reference for central bank. However,the interest rate responds to the output gap very slowly,suggesting some kind of barrier in interest rate transmission channel. Moreover,there are some structural changes before and after crisis,implying that the international shock has had greater impact on our financial market and the independence of our monetary policy has been challenged.

关 键 词：利率市场化 泰勒规则 分阶段检验 货币政策 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]