景德镇市致洪暴雨的特点与气象服务的思考  

Characteristics of Flood-caused Rainstorms and Thoughts on Meteorological Services

作　　者：周江 陈鲍发 黄龙飞 

机构地区：[1]景德镇市气象局,江西景德镇333000

出　　处：《江西科学》2017年第5期738-742,共5页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：江西省气象科技面上项目"赣东北致洪大暴雨的分析与研究";景德镇市科技局2015年软科学项目"景德镇市致洪大暴雨的中尺度特征分析与研究"(编号20151GLRK012)

摘　　要：针对景德镇市4次致洪暴雨过程,从气象服务的角度总结分析了其特点,结果表明:致洪暴雨一般在发生之前有一场暴雨,或24 h之内连续出现2场致洪性暴雨。致洪暴雨的预报准确率较低,漏报、空报率较高,当出现致洪性强降水,短临预警一定要跟上,不要有侥幸心理。致洪暴雨由中尺度系统导致的持续强降水造成,预警时间短的只有1-3 h,各地要建立相应的快速转移应急通道。在暴雨的预报服务过程中,可适当提前3-5 d进行,叙述暴雨过程特点,尽早告知媒体,提前做好相应的防范工作。This paper summarizes four flood-caused rainstorm process in a view of meteorological service. The main conclusions are as follows. Before a flood-caused rainstorm,one heavy rainstorm or two flood-caused events in 24 hours usually happened. The rainstorm forecast accuracy is low,omission,vacancy rate are relatively higher,once a flood caused by strong precipitation occurs,short impending prediction must keep up. Heavy rainfall usually caused by mesoscale system,and the warning time is short only 1-3 h. During the service of a rainstorm process,the meteorological service can be carried out 3-5 days ahead. The media should be informed as soon as possible and the corresponding precautions should be made in advance.

关 键 词：致洪暴雨 天气预报 气象服务 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]