城市化路径选择:大城市优先还是小城镇优先  

Urbanization Path Selection: Priority to Big Cities or Small Towns?

作　　者：蔡继明[1] 高宏[2] 刘媛 

机构地区：[1]清华大学政治经济学研究中心,北京100084 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所,北京100800 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《河北学刊》2017年第6期140-146,共7页Hebei Academic Journal

基　　金：2015年度国家社会科学基金青年项目<我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展研究>(15CJY026)

摘　　要：关于中国的城市化路径,一直存在着优先发展小城镇与优先发展大城市的争论。本文利用1991—2014年99个经济体的跨国面板数据研究发现,各国的城市化路径符合优先发展大城市理论,随着城市化水平的提高,大城市人口比重与城市化率呈倒U型关系,人口流动经历先集中后分散的过程。现阶段,中国城市化率还较低,同时大城市数量明显偏少、人口比重明显偏低,目前及未来一段时期内,中国的大城市相对中小城市仍有生产率等方面的优势,有进一步吸纳人口的空间。On the path of China＇ s urbanization, there has always been a dispute over the priority of small towns or big cities. Using a panel data of 99 economies from 1991--2014, this paper shows that the ur- banization path accords with the theory of priority to the development of big cities. The relationship of pro- portion of population in big cities and urbanization rate is inverted U shape, and the flow of population has experienced a shift from centralization to decentralization. China＇s urbanization rate is still low, while the number of large cities is significantly less and the proportion of the population is also lower. At present and in the coming period, China＇ s big cities still have the advantages of productivity, and have more room to absorb the population.

关 键 词：城市化路径 大城市 小城镇 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]