产业结构变迁、旅游业与经济增长——来自中国的经验证据  

China's tourism industry,industrial structure and economic growth

作　　者：赵磊[1] 唐承财 ZHAO Lei TANG Chengcai(School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 3 10023, China School of Tourism Management, Belting International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经贸管理学院,杭州310023 [2]北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院,北京100024

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第10期1918-1929,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14CGL023);国家自然科学基金项目(41301161);北京市属高校高水平教师队伍建设支持计划青年拔尖人才培育计划项目(CIT&TCD201704067)

摘　　要：既有关于旅游业导向型经济增长假说的经验研究,由于忽视了产业结构变迁的动态性,从而会导致对旅游业影响经济增长效应的估计偏误。因此,本文在定量测度中国各省产业结构变迁基础上,将旅游业、产业结构变迁与经济增长纳入到统一分析框架进行实证考察,以拓展旅游业导向型经济增长假说的研究体系。研究结果表明:(1)以泰尔指数反向度量的产业结构合理化对经济增长具有抑制作用,而产业结构高级化则对经济增长具有积极作用,并且产业结构高级化对经济增长的"结构效应"要大于产业结构合理化对经济增长的"失衡效应";(2)中国旅游业对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,与此同时,产业结构欠缺合理化抑制了旅游业对经济增长的影响效应,而产业结构高级化可正向调节旅游业对经济增长的影响效应。本文认为,政府在进行产业结构调整时,除应着重强调产业结构高级化的同时,还需高度关注产业结构合理化,从而为发挥产业结构变迁对旅游业影响经济增长的正向调节作用创造条件。The tourism industry has become a popular sector in regional development. The impact of tourism on economic growth remains a hot issue for government and academia. With China＇ s economy transitioning to a ＇new normal＇, changes in industrial structure are a direct driver of China＇s economic growth. The industrial structural adjustment has created and provided the necessary elements for the development of a tourism industry, which supports the scale development of the tourism industry and improves the contribution rate of the tourism industry to economic growth. Therefore, based on quantitative measurement of industrial structure, we put tourism, industrial structure and economic growth into a unified framework to carry out empirical research. We found that the tourism industry had a significant positive impact on economic growth. The rationalization of industrial structure had an inhibitory effect on economic growth, while the optimization of industrial structure had a positive impact on economic growth. The ＇structural effect＇ of the optimization of industrial structure on economic growth was greater than the ＇imbalance effect＇ of the rationalization of industrial structure. Finally, the rationalization of industrial structure inhibited the impact of tourism on economic growth, while the optimization of industrial structure positively adjusted the impact of tourism on economic growth. In the policy making process, the government should emphasize the optimization of industrial structure and pay attention to the rationalization of industrial structure to create conditions for the positive adjustment effect of industrial structure on the imoact of the tourism industry on economic growth.

关 键 词：旅游业 产业结构合理化 产业结构高级化 经济增长 中国 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]