基于全寿命周期成本–效益模型的增量配电网投资风险评估  

Evaluation on Investment Risk of Incremental Power Distribution Network Based on Full Life Cycle Cost and Benefit Model

作　　者：王卫平 

机构地区：[1]重庆星能电气有限公司,重庆400039 [2]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆400044

出　　处：《广东电力》2017年第9期45-51,共7页Guangdong Electric Power

摘　　要：针对全寿命周期电网投资评估所采用的确定性方法或基于单一指标的概率解析法存在评估信息不够全面的问题,考虑电量、电价、综合线损率、供电可靠率、单位停电成本、残值率和基准折现率等不确定因素,提出基于蒙特卡洛法的增量配电网全寿命周期投资风险评估方法,通过净现值、净现值率、内部收益率和动态投资回收期等评估指标的期望、方差和概率分布信息,进行经济评估和方案不可行概率分析。以某增量配电网2016—2035年投资方案为算例进行投资风险评估,结果表明所提方法可行、有效。下一阶段将研究在确定性和不确定性条件下增量配电网融资方案评估与决策方法。In allusion to the problem that evaluation information is not comprehensive for full life cycle investment evaluation on the power grid acquired from deterministic method or the probability analysis method based on single index,this paper considers uncertain factors such as electric quantity,electricity price,comprehensive line loss,power supply reliability rate,unit power-cut cost,remaining value rate,benchmark discount rate,and so on and presents an evaluation method for full life cycle investment risk of the incremental power distribution network based on Monte Carlo method. By means of expected values,variance and probability distribution information of evaluation index such as net present values,net present value rate,internal rate of return,dynamic investment payback period,and so on,this method is used for economic evaluation and infeasible probability analysis. Taking an investment scheme of one incremental power distribution network from 2016 to 2035 as an example for investment risk evaluation,this paper proves feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The next research focuses on financing proposal evaluation and decision method for the incremental power distribution network under conditions of certainty and uncertainty.

关 键 词：配电网 投资风险评估 蒙特卡洛法 全寿命周期 净现值 净现值率 内部收益率 动态投资回收期 

分 类 号：TM715.3[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]