中国新西兰贸易现状及增长因素测算--FTA升级谈判背景下的实证  

The Current Situation and Growth Factors of China and New Zealand Trade——An Empirical Study in the Context of the Updating of FTA Negotiations

作　　者：佟继英[1,2] 杨艳慧[1] 郑红玲[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]唐山学院经济管理系,河北唐山063000 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [3]唐山师范学院经济管理系,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2017年第11期103-111,共9页East China Economic Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790021);河北省科技厅科技(指令)计划项目(174576242D);河北省社科联民生调研课题(201701515);河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(GH172033)

摘　　要：在逆全球化和保护主义抬头的大背景下,中国新西兰已经启动两轮FTA升级谈判以促进双方进一步的交流与合作。文章选取WITS数据库1992-2015年中新贸易数据,分析贸易特征。运用简化的CMS模型,分解2002-2007、2008-2009、2010-2013、2014-2015年四个阶段中新贸易增长因素。结果显示:市场需求效应对双边贸易发展起了决定性的作用,市场结构效应和市场竞争效应是促进中新贸易发展的重要因素;分类别贸易产品的增长因素存在着差异性。针对实证结果,从优化出口结构、提高市场竞争力等方面提出对策建议。In the context of anti-globalization and protectionism, China and New Zealand have already started two rounds of negotiations on the upgrading of FTA to promote further exchanges and cooperation between themselves. Based on the 1992-2015 trade data from WITS Database, this paper analyzes the characteristics of China and New Zealand trade. And then, this paper dynamically decomposes the influential factors of the growth of China and New Zealand trade of 2002-2007, 2008-2009, 2010-2013, 2014-2015 by applying the mod- ified CMS model. The results show that the effect of market demand plays a decisive role in the growth of bilateral trade, and the effect of market structure and the effect of market competitivenessare are also very important. Moreover, there are differences in the growth factors of different types of trade products. According to the empirical results, the paper puts forth some countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the export structure and improve the market competitiveness and so on.

关 键 词：中国新西兰贸易 FTA CMS模型 增长因素 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F740[经济管理—产业经济]