中国不同货币政策中介目标传导机制有效性对比分析  

A Comparative Analysis on the Effectiveness of Transmission Mechanism of China's Different Monetary Policy Intermediate Targets

作　　者：刘尧成[1] 庄雅淳 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学商学院,江苏苏州215021

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2017年第9期32-39,共8页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：本文应用异方差时变参数模型(SV-TVP-VAR)对2002年6月至2016年8月间我国数量型和价格型两种货币政策中介目标传导机制的有效性进行了对比分析。主要结论包括:首先,这两种货币政策中介目标与我国工业增加值等实体经济因素的关联性均随时间推移而逐步增强;其次,受其自身冲击的影响,短期利率的波幅较大,但利率期限结构正在逐步完善,短期利率对中期利率以及中期利率对长期利率的影响程度随时间增强;再次,就货币供应量和利率之间的影响关系来看,利率对货币供应量比货币供应量对利率的影响显著。In this paper, we use SV-TVP-VAR model to do a comparative analysis on the effectiveness of quanti-tative channel and price channel transmission mechanism of China＇s two monetary policy intermediate targets from Jun. 2002 to Aug. 2016. We get the following results： firstly, the correlations between these two monetary policy intermedi- ate targets and the real economy factors such as industrial added value are both getting stronger over time. Secondly, the short-term interest rate fluctuates obviously mainly influenced by its own shocks, but the influence degree between the short-term and the medium-term interest rates is been strengthened with time, as well as the medium-term and long-term interest rates, which reflect the fast development of interest rate term structure. Finally, in terms of the relation-ship between money supply and interest rates, interest rates have a more significant effect to money supply. These con-clusions provideenlightenment for the necessity and the timing selection of transformation of China＇s monetary policy in-termediate targets. We also offer several relevant proposals on that.

关 键 词：货币政策 中介目标 传导机制 SV-TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]