基于模糊推理的电网风险评估及线路重要度辨识  

Grid risk assessment and line importance identification based on fuzzy reasoning

作　　者：刘明顺 龙志君[2] 赵立进 黄良 林成 苏华英 韩文浩[2] 张晓伟[2] 张思颖 

机构地区：[1]贵州电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心,贵州贵阳550000 [2]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430072 [3]贵州中网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,贵州贵阳550000

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2017年第3期131-138,共8页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(GZ2014-2-0049)

摘　　要：由于电网事故发生的不确定性和事故造成的严重后果,需要建立风险模型及指标体系,实现电网风险评估和线路重要度辨识。基于此,建立电网风险评估模型,从电压越限、支路潮流过载及负荷削减量3个方面建立风险指标评价体系;基于模糊推理的方法、静态安全分析和风险理论,结合各子风险指标,得到各支路发生故障事故状态下的综合风险值并进行排序分级。以IEEE-RTS79系统为例进行仿真计算,仿真结果表明:该方法实现了电网综合风险评估的量化和分级,能实现线路重要度辨识,为安全预警和制定差异化运维策略提供参考。Due to the uncertainty of the grid accident and the serious consequences of accident, it is necessary to establish the risk model and the index system to realize the grid risk evaluation and the line importance identification. The grid risk evaluation model was built in this paper, and the risk index evaluation system was established based on the following aspects, including voltage limitation, branch power flow and load shedding. Based on the fuzzy reasoning method, the static security analysis and risk theory, the risk index was obtained by combining the line breaking accident case comprehensive risk value and sort classification. Taking IEEE-RTS79 system as an example, the simulation results showed that the proposed method could realize the quantification and classification of the comprehensive risk assessment, and identify the line importance, which could provide theoretical basis for security pre-warning and the operation maintenance strategy.

关 键 词：电网 风险评估 模糊推理 线路重要度 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]