基于ABM+SD耦合模型的滇池流域水价政策仿真  

Simulation of water price policy coupled ABM and SD models in Dianchi Lake Basin

作　　者：张家瑞[1,2] 王慧慧[2] 曾维华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中交天津港航勘察设计研究院有限公司,天津300461 [2]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2017年第10期3991-4000,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2012ZX07102-002-05)

摘　　要：针对滇池流域水资源短缺及现行水价政策存在的诸多问题,从政策仿真角度综合考虑水资源供给会影响水资源价格,进而影响居民和工业企业的水资源消费行为,提出基于滇池流域水资源承载力约束下耦合多主体建模(ABM)和系统动力学(SD)的流域水价政策复杂系统模型,并依据滇池水污染防治"十三五"规划目标,对滇池流域水价政策进行仿真分析.结果表明:若达到"十三五"规划的目标要求,在综合产业结构调整和政策调整的情况下,保持现有水价计量和计算方式不变,滇池流域居民水价应提高至3.23元/m3,工业水价应提高至4.99元/m^3;通过加快对流域水价政策的调控,可有效引导居民Agents和企业Agents采取节水措施,提高其用水效率;建议滇池流域适当减少调水量至3.06亿m^3,可将支付调水补偿的费用,用于再生水设施的建设,提高其再生水回用率至33%,从而保障水资源的长效可持续利用.In view of the shortage of water resources and the existing many problems of water price policy in Dianchi Lake Basin, water supply will affect the price of water resources, and then affect the water consumption behavior of residents and industrial enterprises from the perspective of policy simulation. This study proposed a complex system model that coupled multi-agent based models（ABM） and system dynamics（SD） models of watershed water price policy based on the constraint of water resources carrying capacity in Dianchi Lake Basin. The water price policies was simulated and analyzed according to the targets of the 13 th Five-Year Plan of water pollution prevention and control in Dianchi Lake Basin. The simulation results indicated that, in the case of the adjustment of comprehensive industrial structure and policy in the Dianchi Lake Basin, in order to achieve the 13 th Five-Year Plan targets, the water price of residents and industrial should be raised to 3.23 yuan/m^3 and 4.99 yuan/m3, respectively. By speeding up the regulation and control of watershed water price policy, it can effectively guide the residents Agents and enterprises Agents to take water-saving measures and improve their water-using efficiency. It is suggested that the water diversion volume of Dianchi Lake Basin should reduce appropriately to attain 3.06 billion m^3. Alternatively, the compensation expense of water diversion can be used for the construction of recycled water facilities. Accordingly, the reuse rates of recycled water should reach to 33% that can be ensured the sustainable utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：滇池流域 水资源承载力 居民水价 政策仿真 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]