风速概率分布参数对城市扩展规模的响应  

Response of wind speed probability distribution parameters to urban expansion

作　　者：吴文倩[1] 吴息[1] 王彬滨 许婷婷 WU WenQian WU Xi WANG BinBin XU TingTing(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology （NUIST）, Nanjing 210044, China Sichuan Electric Power Designing and Consulting Co., Ltd, Power Construction Corporation of China, Chengdu 610041, China Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]中国电力建设集团四川电力设计咨询有限责任公司,成都610041 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《科学通报》2017年第28期3369-3378,共10页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428505);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230528)资助

摘　　要：利用北京、哈尔滨、广州等8个大型城市气象站1985~2014年地面风速定时观测资料、同期再分析资料(NCEP1)以及城市规模指标,每5年为一时间段,分析不同时段风速Weibull分布各参数(k,c,r)的变化及其与城市扩展规模之间的关系.结果表明:(1)风速概率分布参数变化程度与城市规模扩展速度有关;城市化效应使得位置参数r变化最大,尺度参数c次之,而形状参数k变化趋势不明显.(2)尺度参数c随城市建成区面积的增加呈现线性递减趋势,7个站的回归方程通过检验,变化率在-0.0203^-0.0016 km^(-2)之间,意味着随城市规模扩大,风速概率密度曲线分布幅度收窄.(3)位置参数r随建成区面积的增加表现为线性上升趋势,数值由负到正变化,6个站回归方程通过检验,变化率在0.0014~0.0171 km^(-2)之间,意味着城市规模扩大会导致静风、微风频率减小.分析还显示r的变化率与纬度相关良好.(4)以再分析资料拟合参数c_x和r_x,取相对变量c/c_x和r/r_x以表征城市化效应对风参数的影响部分,分析的结果与c,r相似.(5)形状参数k与城市规模指标的相关不显著.Recent studies have indicated that wind speed probability distribution can be described closely using three-param- eters Weibull distribution, which has come to be widely used in the description of wind speed probability distribu- tion over the past several years. The fitting effect of probability density curve would be better than the universal three-parameter Weibull distribution in calm wind by changing the universal three-parameter Weibull distribution function definition domain condition [r, co） to a limited three-parameter Weibull distribution function definition domain [0, oo）, which would be more applicable to actual wind speed distribution. Timely observation wind speed of Beijing, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and other 5 large urban stations and their com- parative county stations, and corresponding NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1 wind speed data collected from 1985-2014 were divided into sets, each of which had an average of six periods. The three parameters （k, c, r） of Weibull distribution of wind speed probability distribution are fitted using numerical iteration to analyze the changes in wind speed probability distribution parameters with respect to differences in wind speed section, and synthetic variations of those parameters can reflect changes in different wind speed sections, such as calm wind, light wind, and strong wind probability under urbanization, which can provide thorough understanding of the relationship to city size indexes and wind speed probability distribution parameters. Data analysis and mathematical derivation were here used to draw the following conclusions： （1） the relationship of urban-rural wind speed difference D and rural wind speed Vx can be expressed as D=blVx＋i. Under these conditions, city wind speed parameters k, c, and r and the corresponding rural wind speed parameters Cx, kx, and rx have the following relationship： c=（b1＋1）cx, r=-（bl＋l）rx＋i, k=kx. （2） As shown, parameter c is affected by unitary surface friction function, parameter r by the com

关 键 词：风速 Weibull分布参数 城市规模指标 线性相关 

分 类 号：TU984.113[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]