江苏省昆山市人口统计学指标变化趋势及预测分析  

Demographic Trends and Prediction in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：胡文斌[1,2] 秦威 史建国[1] 仝岚[1] 邱和泉[1] 周杰 金亦徐[1] 张婷[1] 罗晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆山市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科,江苏昆山215300 [2]昆山高新区江浦社区服务中心,江苏昆山215300

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2017年第5期514-517,共4页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

基　　金：昆山市社会发展科技专项(KS1655)

摘　　要：目的分析江苏省昆山市1981—2014年户籍人口变动情况以及时间序列特点。方法历年年均人口数、出生率、死亡率、人口自然增长率及机械增长率资料来源于1981—2014年昆山市统计年鉴。使用统计描述、时间趋势与自回归模型结合的方法对出生率、死亡率进行时间序列建模,其模型的识别、估计以及预测用SAS软件实现。结果江苏省昆山市1981—2014年男女合计平均观察人年数由1981年的527 337人增加到2014年的761 336人,上升趋势差异有统计学意义(APC=1.1%,95%CI:1.0%~1.2%)。2000年以后粗出生率明显上升,粗死亡率在1981—2014年期间明显下降(APC=-0.3%,95%CI:-0.5%^-0.1%)。时间趋势与自回归模型对出生率和死亡率进行预测,结果显示,未来年份人口出生率急剧上升,而死亡率则缓慢下降。结论江苏省昆山市年均人口数在人口自然增长和机械增长双重作用下逐年上升,同时也呈现出粗死亡率下降和老龄化进程加速的趋势。Objectives To explore the demographic trend and the time serie characteristic in Kunshan city,Jiangsu province,1981-2014.Methods Average annual population,birth rate,death rate,population mechanical growth rate,and natural population growth rate were derived from Kunshan Statistical Yearbook.Statistical description and stepwise autoregressive method were used to modeling the demographic change indicators,and the identify,estimate,and prediction were conducted in SAS software.Results Annual average population was 527 337 in 1981 and 761 336 in2014 in Kunshan city,the upward trend was statistically significant（APC=1.1%,95%CI：1.0% -1.2%）.Crude birth rate was increasing gradually after the year of 2000,and crude death rate was decreased significantly during1981 to 2014（APC=-0.3%,95%CI：-0.5% --0.1%）.The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the birth rate showed upward trend in the following years,but the death rate showed downward trend.Conclusions The average population in Kunshan city,Jiangsu province,have been driven upwards by the natural population growth and mechanical growth.Moreover,the decline of death rate and the acceleration of the aging process were coexist.

关 键 词：出生率 死亡率 人口自然增长率 年均人口数 时间序列 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学] R181.21[医药卫生—流行病学]