开征房产税能够降低房价并替代土地财政吗?  

Can Property Tax Reduce Housing Prices and Replace Land Finance?

作　　者：柴国俊[1] 王希岩[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学商学院,河北石家庄050061 [2]北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心,北京100044

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2017年第6期55-62,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB15YJ060)

摘　　要：以往文献认为,征收房产税会抑制房价,但鲜有学者探究该政策作用的具体时间效应及土地市场综合效果。基于2008—2013年上海和南京、重庆和成都两组城市的区级数据,利用双重差分及事件研究方法实证考察研究发现,实施房产税总体上对住房价格有显著的提升作用,但会随着时间推移而下降;征税还能够降低住房成交量,同时对土地均价和土地出让金具有负向影响;房产税在上海的试点效果和总体一致,但对重庆的影响不显著甚至与预期相反。In the past, it was considered that the imposition of property tax would curb housing price, but few scholars explored the specific time effect of the policy and the comprehensive effect of the land market. This paper makes an empirical study based on the regional data of Shanghai and Nanjing,Chongqing and Chengdu cities from 2008 to 2013,by taking advantage of difference-in-difference method and event study,and it is found that the implementation of property tax generally plays a significant role in enhancing the housing prices,but will decline with time;the tax can also reduce the housing sales,but it leads to a negative impact on the average price of land and land transfer;the pilot effect of property tax in Shanghai is generally consistent with the total,while the impact on Chongqing is not significant and even contrary to the expected.

关 键 词：房产税 土地财政 房地产市场 双重差分法 事件研究 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]